Heather A. Conley

“ 'You could feel the loss of understanding at the end of the Cold War of what our allies were for,” said Heather Conley, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Conley is in the midst of a tour of the country, trying to make the case for continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine. And she’s getting an earful.

“The American people have some important questions to ask about what’s important about our security, our level of debt,” said Conley. “These are the right questions to ask. But you have to engage them in a conversation.”

Conley, who was a senior official in former President George W. Bush's State Department, said she's glad Biden is giving the speech this week. But she said she wishes he had made this case more forcefully and more often.

“If it’s important to the country, we have to have an important conversation with our citizens,” said Conley. ”

“ “We’re going to see Ukraine suffer from battlefield losses, we could see significant Russian gains, and the Ukrainians have no ammunition left." ”

“ “We’re increasingly seeing that Ukraine is having a harder time knocking down the Iranian Shahed drones, and now with North Korean missiles added, over time that’s going to be more destructive on main cities. They need air defense capabilities." ”

“ Military support for Ukraine is absolutely essential in the next few months. They need more ammunition — particularly more air defense capabilities. This is why the lack of movement on the U.S. supplemental bill is so concerning. We also hope that the European Council will approve its planned €20 billion European Peace Facility proposal at the summit next month. ”

“ Over the last 20 years, national security leaders stopped talking about the benefit and only talked about the cost. And yet NATO has followed the American national security agenda. ”

“ Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund in Washington, said that Scholz was also looking to hear from Biden on his “Plan B” if Congress remains at loggerheads over funding for Ukraine.

“If in fact, there is no forthcoming U.S. supplemental, what tools does the U.S. administration have at its disposal?” Conley said. ”

“ What we see from the administration on this issue, the pitch in their voice is getting a little higher and a little louder. Clearly China has made a decision to not give any overt support, but they’re certainly not stopping this assistance to Russia from state-owned firms. ”

“ The future of the international system as we understand it runs through Ukraine. ”

“ We are in this rinse, lather and repeat cycle, where there is great hesitation, allies pile in, they push, they cajole, they give their own equipment to try to push things along. And we wait, we wait, we wait. ”

“ This is a historically difficult moment for the Germans to be sending tanks back into that theater. Again, they feel stronger and more capable when the US is standing right beside them as they take that step. ”

“ It’s just fragmented and doesn’t necessarily have an overarching policy objective that everyone understands. … And they’re not reflecting these really important geostrategic, whether they’re economic, security shifts, and how are we adjusting policy ”

“ Planning for reconstruction and recovery must begin now. ”

“ No U.S. official spoke publicly, despite a feeling among Ukrainian and European officials that Washington must play a critical role. And European leaders did not seem as organized as their Ukrainian counterparts. ”

“ But most dangerous are the arguments made by some Republicans and others that “proactively and willfully” parrot Russian disinformation to discredit Ukraine and undercut any effort to save it from Moscow. The administration and supporters of Ukraine need to do a better job of explaining exactly what is at stake in the conflict. Beyond high prices at the gas pump, the submission of Ukraine to an unfettered Russia will lead to a world order in which Moscow and Beijing control much of the globe at the expense of U.S. interests and international stability. ”

“ Putin's main goal is to divide the West. ”

“ When a permanent member of the Security Council takes the opportunity to double-down on violating the U.N. Charter during the General Assembly with what feels like impunity, I would not say this strengthens the U.N.’s effectiveness. It reinforces its weakness as an enforcement body. ”

“ As the administration is trying to find ways to navigate through increasingly tense situations, her clarity can work against some of their interests. ”

“ You saw at the beginning of the war this very strong view that this is Putin’s war, this is not the Russian people. But increasingly, that separation of Russian people and the Russian government is really getting more difficult to discern. ”

“ The officials fear that Biden’s attempts to repair a fractured system are temporary, like glue holding together a shattered vase... Other governments, including those that have turned toward their own populist authoritarian leaders like Hungary’s Orban, see a potential Trump return as a boon. They are — unwisely — gaming out our polarization and hope it will work for their side. It’s very, very risky. ”

“ They are — unwisely — gaming out our polarization and hope it will work for their side. It’s very, very risky. ”

“ It is hard to dislike the jovial and effusive Mr. Johnson but President Biden certainly does not support any efforts to jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement or approve of his brand of populism. ”

“ Domestic politics get more difficult the higher the political and economic costs get, and that’s exactly what Putin is counting on. ”

“ The €100bn is just an initial down-payment in a longer-term investment in strengthening NATO's eastern flank and Germany’s own territorial defense. ”

“ We now are really seeing the true impact of deep, deep political polarization, where it is better to harm the other side than do what’s right for the country. This deep domestic polarization has now crept into foreign and security policy. There has always been strong bipartisan support for NATO, but everything now has become polarized and can be weaponized against the other side, even if it supports U.S. national security interests. ”

“ Unfortunately, Macron's nearly sole focus on France and Europe's geopolitical position vis-à-vis Russia over the past few months had the unintended consequence of normalizing his opponent Marine Le Pen's long-standing friendly relations with Putin and the Kremlin. ”

“ This is now for the US one Eurasian theater. We’re looking at the challenge of both Russia and China [in the] long term in similar ways. We’re going to have to have a NATO that prioritizes collective defense for Europe while at the same time being able to build greater partnerships and bridging mechanisms to our Indo-Pacific allies. ”

“ For people that just literally tuning in to what [Biden] said, it was really sending some shockwaves. That was such a big and loaded closing remark to this trip that I think, in many ways, it overshadows some of the many good things that came out of it. ”

“ Putin's advisers probably viewed Biden's statement as the president speaking out loud what they already believed was US policy. ”

“ What concerns me is that we’re falling back into our Syria chemical red lines trap. It’s fine to have tough rhetoric but tough rhetoric has got to be followed up with an immediate and full-bodied response.
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“ If Ukraine will not bend the knee to Russia, he will make sure that Ukraine is going to be a wasteland. ”

“ On the other hand, it’s that litmus of loyalty that is the key ingredient to an oligarch’s wealth. Mr. Putin can create it and Mr. Putin can take it away... We saw a little of this in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. The oligarchs understood the loyalty test and many of them drew even closer to the regime. ”

“ This is where the actor understands the moment, understands the messages that need to be delivered in that moment. You can absolutely credit him and his constant outreach to world leaders, and of course the incredible courage of the Ukrainian people. It is changing policy. ”

“ [The Munich Security Conference] is really an important moment for Harris and the administration. I think if she can deliver a clear speech that reflects not just inspiration of US leadership, but real action, real meat of what they are trying to do, it will make a big impression going forward. ”

“ I’m not entirely sure the president or the administration knows how the story is going to end, because to confront growing authoritarian behavior... whether it’s in the South China Sea, or the Baltic Sea, you need probably less rhetoric and more showing of strength. ”

“ In many ways, Ukraine tells us about the future of the international system. If Russia is allowed to invade, occupy and annex its neighbor, that's an inherently very unstable international system, which will affect America's security and its prosperity. ”

“ Although we must remain open to dialogue and we hope to provide de-escalation and reducing and mitigating risk. This is really about the future of international security, European security and the role of Europe and the United States. ”