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Foreign Policy

It’s extremely unusual for a Chinese leader to show up in a country hosting a multilateral meeting – especially one that China is deeply invested in, like BRICS – and fail to show up at the opening event. ”

NATO Security and Geopolitics

So when Ukraine applied for NATO membership a few months after the outbreak of war, he reacted cautiously. "Ukraine's accession would be perceived by Russia as a confrontation," he told Le Monde newspaper in December. "Macron has long been convinced that you have to shape European security with Russia and not against Russia," says Gesine Weber. She is a France expert at the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund. "France therefore rejected Ukrainian accession for a long time because they feared it could be perceived as a threat by Moscow." (...) This has led to a huge outcry among France's allies and shown Macron that he is not getting any closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by telling the press his uncoordinated, abstract ideas," said France expert Weber. "He realized that he can show leadership at the same time and get closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by speaking out in favor of Ukraine joining NATO." (…) "Giving Ukraine security guarantees outside of NATO in the long term would also be damn expensive for France," Weber says. At the same time, Macron's confidence in NATO as a guarantor of security has grown. While he declared it "brain dead" in 2017, he said in May that Article Five is having its full effect. "It keeps Russia in check," Macron said. Letting Kiev share in it is thus the more favorable alternative for Paris.”

Translated from German
Elections

But Trump is unpredictable to an uncomfortable degree for everyone. A second Trump term would be different from the first, and much worse. Trump has experience now and knows what levers to pull, and he’s angry. ”

Security and Geopolitics

We are in an abnormal moment of geopolitical risk around the Black Sea [because of] Russia’s invasion,” Romana Vlahutin, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former EU special envoy for connectivity, told RFE/RL. “It’s hard to plan for something when things are this volatile, but we know that what we don’t do, others will.”

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