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Defense Cooperation Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

But the strategy paper confirmed a shift. It did not talk of hope of “Wandel durch Handel“ (change through trade), once a motto of the Merkel era. “De-risking is urgently needed,” the document said, using the now standard language of EU and American officials when referring to the dangers of over-reliance on economic ties with China. It echoed the EU’s labelling of China as a “systemic rival” and said China’s friendly relations with Russia had “direct security implications for Germany”. It warned that military escalation by China in the Taiwan Strait would “affect German and European interests”. The paper promised that Germany would co-ordinate “more closely” with its partners in the EU on China matters. It did mention a relationship of trust: with America. Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a research centre, calls the language “markedly different from where we were with Merkel and the way she was willing to frame things”. Business decisions Mr Small says that, though large German firms have expressed support for the strategy, “they haven’t jumped in to embrace it”. They have much at stake. According to the Rhodium Group, a research firm, Germany’s three big carmakers—BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen—plus BASF, a chemicals giant, accounted for more than one-third of all European direct investment in China between 2018 and 2021. But the paper is softer than a version that was leaked in November: no more talk of “stress tests” of German companies that are heavily involved in China, or making them “specify and summarise relevant China-related developments”. De-risking, it appears, will be up to businesses themselves. Some of them may not share the government’s sense of urgency.”

Authoritarian Interference Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

“FAU is aware that under these contracts CSC scholarship holders will be unable to fully exercise their academic freedom and freedom of expression as stipulated under German Basic Law,” the email said. Such wording in contracts “would be unthinkable in Germany, I don’t think you could have this kind of contract with any scholarship holder here”, Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow working on China at the German Marshall Fund think tank in Berlin, told University World News. “Some of the issues in the contract have caused some debate here in Germany. Universities have to ensure people can enjoy the rights they’re normally guaranteed in Germany, like anybody else, such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression,” she said. More German universities are expected to follow suit. But “it’s probably going to be a hard decision for most universities”, Ohlberg noted. [...] As indicated by FAU, the contract requires them to report back to the Chinese embassy on a regular basis, with violations of the conditions subject to disciplinary action. The contract also stipulated that they must return to China after their PhD and that the terms of the CSC contract only expired after two years of having returned home. According to Ohlberg, who has seen older versions of the CSC contract, if they are in breach, “[t]hey can technically be asked to repay the scholarship, plus some additional fee on top”. If the person breaks the contract, for example by staying abroad, and does not pay back the money, then the two people that are forced to remain in China would have to pay. “It also sends a political message, that also adds additional incentive and additional pressure on the person not to do anything that could be seen as breaking the contract,” Ohlberg said.”

Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business

THINK TANKERS TAKE: “The strategy sends a clear message that Germany’s approach to China has changed. China is now seen as more of a challenge and a threat than as an opportunity,” Noah Barkin, who focuses on China-EU relations at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Berlin Bulletin. He added: “The fact that the government has spelled this out in writing is important for the debate in Europe given the mixed signals that have been coming from Berlin.” But there are still open questions: The key issue is “implementation,” Barkin said. “The government is determined to reduce its dependencies on China and diversify to other markets. But will the German companies that are heavily dependent on China pay attention to this message?””

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