Poland’s High-Stakes Election: Security and Strategy
More than a year after Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition took office, ousting the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s right-wing government, political dynamics in Poland have shifted. While Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition (KO) gained early momentum, PiS remains a formidable force. At the same time, Confederation, a radical-right party favoring economic liberalism and isolationism, is the underdog of the last two elections.
The Polish president plays a key role in foreign policy as the highest representative of the republic, responsible for the ratification and termination of international treaties, the appointment and recall of ambassadors, and the acceptance of foreign diplomats’ credentials. The president can also request a constitutional review of treaties before ratification and ensures continuity in Poland’s international obligations. While the daily conduct of foreign policy remains the domain of the Council of Ministers, the power of the President may vary depending on the situation. For instance, current President Andrzej Duda has hindered the new government’s appointment of key ambassadors, using what is generally seen as a symbolic role as an actual political function. Moreover, Duda has used his veto power to block key government reforms regarding the national budget and the liberalization of access to emergency contraception. These and other examples illustrate the extent of what the president’s powers can achieve.
The Candidates
Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Platform party (PO), Warsaw’s mayor, is the liberals’ frontrunner. But lately he has shifted rightward to appeal to conservatives, risking his left-leaning base. His most serious rival, Karol Nawrocki, backed by PiS, emphasizes nationalism and family values, using anti-Ukrainian rhetoric to attract Confederation voters. The outsider is Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation), a far-right nationalist, who pushes for Poland’s military self-reliance and opposes both aid to Ukraine and EU integration. Notably, both the PiS and Confederation candidates have followed US President Donald Trump’s example, echoing a Russian propaganda narrative that the upcoming elections may be rigged.
Polls show Trzaskowski leading at 33%–36% of likely voters, with Mentzen and Nawrocki closely battling at around 20%–23%. Considering that if no candidate achieves 50% of the votes, the two leading candidates will battle in the runoff, the final outcome will depend largely on how the eliminated candidate’s supporters realign.
Security, Defense, and Foreign Policy
In defense matters, Trzaskowski has shown support for a stronger EU role in security, praising Poland as a model country for European partners. Recently, he pledged to protect the eastern border by boosting Poland’s defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2026. He aims to allocate half of the funds to domestic projects, advanced communication, drones, and hydrogen technologies. Interestingly, he proposes an agreement among all political forces on the most important security issues, with convenings of the National Security Council—an advisory body that includes the leaders of all the parliamentary formations—every two months.
Nawrocki emphasizes the need to bolster ties with Washington. He opposes the idea of an EU more independent from NATO, contending that Poland’s security is best safeguarded by the Atlantic Alliance and US support—a view echoed by PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, who criticizes Tusk’s backing of broader EU defense initiatives.
In contrast, Mentzen proposes to achieve military self-sufficiency by expanding domestic arms production, enhancing reservist training, and curbing political interference in defense. He links mass immigration to security risks, drawing parallels with instability observed in parts of Western Europe.
US-Poland Relations and Ukraine
Trump’s election has emboldened Poland’s right-wing factions. PiS and Confederation went so far as to call for Tusk’s government to resign, accusing it of straining US ties. But Polish officials have aimed to strike the right balance in their relationship with the new US administration: While Tusk criticized GOP leaders for delaying Ukraine aid, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski engaged with key Republican figures, signaling an effort to maintain strong transatlantic ties.
Mentzen, a vocal Trump supporter, downplays the strategic value of the EU, which he considers militarily ineffective. He advocates for a foreign policy that prioritizes bilateral ties with Washington over deeper European defense integration, barring any road to enhanced European military collaboration.
Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has adjusted his stance on Ukraine to appeal to conservative voters. Recently, he opposed certain social benefits for Ukrainian refugees. He was also vocal in tying access to the EU to a reform of agricultural policy that would prevent harsh repercussions for Polish farmers. Nonetheless, he remains the only candidate among the three to staunchly support the idea of making Ukraine the 28th EU country. In fact, he was the only candidate to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his most recent visit to Poland.
As public support for Ukraine wanes—some now favoring peace even with territorial costs for Kyiv—PiS and Confederation exploit this shift. Nawrocki, despite PiS’s pro-US stance, adopts a transactional security approach, tying Poland’s support for Ukraine’s NATO and EU bids to unresolved historical disputes. Of these disputes, the primary example has to do with securing permission from Ukraine to exhume the Polish victims of the Volhynia massacre—the 1943 mass killing of Polish civilians by the nationalist Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). By invoking these grievances, Nawrocki signals a tougher stance, going so far as to say that he does not see any place for Ukraine either in NATO or in the EU. Zelenskyy responded by warning that if Ukraine remains outside NATO, Nawrocki himself may have to fight, hinting at a future Russian threat to Polish territory and citizens. Nawrocki's victory could align Poland with Trump’s Ukraine policy, emphasizing national defense over regional security, and complicating Poland’s stance as a staunch supporter of Ukraine.
What Is at Stake?
No matter who wins, Poland will push defense spending to 5% of GDP, underscoring its strategic focus. If Trzaskowski loses, Tusk’s PO-led government could unravel, opening the door to a stronger nationalist opposition, stalling the government agenda, and potentially paving the way to early parliamentary elections. At the same time, centrist politicians find themselves leaning into conservative rhetoric, reflecting broader pressure to compete with the populist right.