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Elections Foreign Policy Global Implications of China's Rise

Beijing is closely watching how far-right parties perform in particular: A strong showing in the EU, followed by elections in three German states later this year, could “create an impression of political disarray,” a German Marshall Fund fellow wrote, which could slow any legislation aimed at curbing China’s ambitions. ”

Defense Cooperation Elections NATO Security and Geopolitics

Michał Baranowski, the head of the German Marshall Fund in Poland, said his country has a unique perspective on why spending more on defense is essential. But that doesn’t mean all European countries feel the same way.“It’s clear that Europe is waking up. It’s clear the West is waking up. But the question is if we’re waking up at the pace of relevance,” Baranowski said. “We’re talking about how European defense, and defense in general, is expensive. We kind of understand in this part of the world that what’s really expensive is if Ukraine loses the war, and then we actually have to deal with Russians that feel victorious and are trying to push further.” ”

Under the Tusk government, Poland is more proactive in the European security architecture. Berlin is now a closer ally, and the momentum of the Weimar Triangle offers hope of counterbalancing the Russian threat. ”

Elections Foreign Policy

As for many middle powers/swing states in the Global South, for Saudi Arabia, multi-alignment is the logical response to a more volatile, complex, multipolar world order, Kristina Kausch, deputy managing director of GMF South who authored the report on Saudi Arabia's position among these rising powers, told Newsweek. "Not marriage but a fluid set of relationships is the way Riyadh sees it can hedge against international instability and leverage its strengths and assets to greatest advantage."She argued that this strategy is especially essential for Saudi Arabia, "as the adaptation and sustainability of its geo-economic business model depends on good relations with the United States, China and Russia alike."”

The French industry may not be as ready as the German one. And we see this in the 2025 plans that have been developed and announced: if we look at the shells, Germany plans to produce 700,000 of them in 2025, and France only 100,000.”

Security and Geopolitics Technology and Democracy

For China, the optics of the talks may be as important as their substance, according to Lindsay Gorman, a former senior technology advisor in the Biden White House. “China wants to be a player in global governance. It wants to be on equal footing with the U.S. as another pole when it comes to leading the conversation on AI development and regulations,” said Gorman, who now heads the German Marshall Fund’s technology program. And it’s not just Washington, either—Xi’s visit to Europe this month included a joint declaration on AI governance between France and China.“China benefits from calm seas, including on these AI topics. A public show of diplomacy helps foster that image, and anything they can do to blunt some of these tech actions would definitely be in their interest,” Gorman said.”

Democratic Decline

This bill, which mirrors the Russian law, is designated as a tool to weaken the opposition, the independent media, freedom of speech, and practically everyone who thinks differently from Georgian Dream. Thus, it turns Georgia's course towards Russia and endangers its European perspective.”

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