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Read the latest news and commentary from the German Marshall Fund.
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officers directly:
Chris Schaefer, Press Officer, at +1 202 642 7727 or [email protected]
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officers directly:
Chris Schaefer, Press Officer, at +1 202 642 7727 or [email protected]
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
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“ Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations. Beijing took over its seat in 1971. Currently, only 13 countries, including Paraguay, have formal diplomatic relations with the island. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She said Beijing believes U.S. support may embolden current or future leaders in Taiwan to pursue independence. [...] In addition, China’s foreign ministry said that Beijing opposes any official interaction between Taiwan and the U.S. and that the Taiwan issue is the insurmountable red line that cannot be crossed in U.S.-China relations. "The Chinese are very alarmed about what could happen and they are warning that their red lines should be taken seriously," Glaser said. [...] Glaser said that while Beijing’s response will likely be determined by the agenda during Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., the outside world should not rule out any possible scenarios. "[Even though] I don’t think Lai will do any public events, if he did give a speech or said something that is viewed as provocative by the Chinese leadership, that would give them a reason to do something in the military realm," she said. Still, she said she thinks Beijing would have to be "very alarmed" by things that Lai did in order to execute a military response that matches what they did when Pelosi visited Taiwan.”
“ Once in power, the PP may take up its traditional backseat in EU politics, said Kirstina Kausch, a Madrid-based senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund, and not make any major waves. “I worry more about the rise of the Spanish Right in the European Parliament elections and a stronger conservative majority. Imagine what would have happened with the Nature Restoration Act. Maybe the Parliament would have rejected it,” she said.”
“ Kristina Kausch speaks on the 2023 Spanish elections.”
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March 27, 2023