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Foreign Policy

How forcefully mainland China’s military responds will depend in part on how Speaker Pelosi handles the visit. Will she do things publicly or privately?... Will there be some footage of her meeting with President Tsai? I think all of those will have some impact on how the Chinese react at this point. But I am confident that their reaction will be beyond what they did in 1996, firing missiles around the Taiwan Strait. ”

Foreign Policy

[Xi] may particularly feel that he can't be seen as soft on the United States and therefore react even more strongly than he might otherwise.”

Elections

The officials fear that Biden’s attempts to repair a fractured system are temporary, like glue holding together a shattered vase... Other governments, including those that have turned toward their own populist authoritarian leaders like Hungary’s Orban, see a potential Trump return as a boon. They are — unwisely — gaming out our polarization and hope it will work for their side. It’s very, very risky.”

Foreign Policy

The probability that the PRC will take a series of military, economic, and diplomatic actions to show strength and resolve is not insignificant. Likely it will seek to punish Taiwan in myriad ways. The probability of war or a serious incident is low. ”

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