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Read the latest news and commentary from the German Marshall Fund.

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Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 19, 2022

“ Though ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it is clear China’s exercises had been long planned. I do think they were looking for an opportunity to escalate. This is not something you prep after the announcement (of the visit) and then pull off that quickly and that easily.”

AP News

Mareike Ohlberg

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 16, 2022

“ The unpredictability is going to be absolutely endemic for anyone—official or private sector—who’s operating in Afghanistan.”

Vice

Andrew Small

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 16, 2022

“ I doubt Xi's top concerns are related to foreign policy. As Xi is looking toward the Party Congress, I think he is most concerned about putting his own people on the Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo. ”

Axios

Bonnie S. Glaser

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 11, 2022

“ I believe that they think that if they just let this continue, that there will come a time in the very near future that they will have to use force. And I believe that, for lots of reasons, they’re not ready to do so.”

Washington Post

Bonnie S. Glaser

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 10, 2022

“ I do not see any evidence that a decision has been made to use force against Taiwan. I see substantial evidence to the contrary: that China has not made a decision but that it has not ruled it out.”

Grid

Bonnie S. Glaser

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 9, 2022

“ It’s impossible to do an accurate assessment of how well the PLA performed in conducting joint operations. It’s not clear who was doing command and control … They rehearsed imposing a blockade and carrying out strikes on the island, but the exercises didn’t contain all the elements that would be needed to invade the island.”

The Guardian

Bonnie S. Glaser

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 5, 2022

“ Over the coming days and months, China will conduct provocative and escalatory exercises that may include [more] live missile fires in Taiwan’s air space. It may try to flip one of the 14 remaining countries that still recognize Taiwan diplomatically. And it will put more economic pressure on Taiwan. Beijing will assess the impact of its actions and warnings on the US and Taiwan. If they believe that the message hasn’t been heard and if they don’t see some restraint, I expect they will take more aggressive measures.”

Breaking Defense

Bonnie S. Glaser

Russia Ukraine Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 3, 2022

Hearing on Challenges from Chinese Policy in 2022: Zero-COVID, Ukraine, and Pacific Diplomacy

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Bonnie S. Glaser

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

August 2, 2022

“ Xi must show resolve. He has to shore up Chinese red lines and prevent further drift toward an unacceptable outcome — US support for Taiwan independence.”

Washington Post

Bonnie S. Glaser

Press

The Latest

Debate Night: Trust in US Elections and the Peaceful Transition of Power

On The Edge

China and Russia as a security threat + The return of the range extender

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“ Though ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it is clear China’s exercises had been long planned. I do think they were looking for an opportunity to escalate. This is not something you prep after the announcement (of the visit) and then pull off that quickly and that easily.”

“ The unpredictability is going to be absolutely endemic for anyone—official or private sector—who’s operating in Afghanistan.”

“ I doubt Xi's top concerns are related to foreign policy. As Xi is looking toward the Party Congress, I think he is most concerned about putting his own people on the Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo. ”

“ I believe that they think that if they just let this continue, that there will come a time in the very near future that they will have to use force. And I believe that, for lots of reasons, they’re not ready to do so.”

“ I do not see any evidence that a decision has been made to use force against Taiwan. I see substantial evidence to the contrary: that China has not made a decision but that it has not ruled it out.”

Hearing on Challenges from Chinese Policy in 2022: Zero-COVID, Ukraine, and Pacific Diplomacy

“ Xi must show resolve. He has to shore up Chinese red lines and prevent further drift toward an unacceptable outcome — US support for Taiwan independence.”