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Defense Cooperation Global Implications of China's Rise NATO Security and Geopolitics

“The conflict in Ukraine shifted things,” said Andrew Small, a senior trans-Atlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program. “There is more appreciation now [in the EU] of how Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic are more intertwined.” [...] Large-scale Chinese investments in critical European infrastructure are also believed to carry security risks. Chinese investments in European ports have been particularly controversial because ports are counted as strategic assets. Some of these European ports are, naturally, logistical hubs for NATO equipment. “How could China use its control of critical European infrastructure in a wartime scenario? That’s a relevant question and a military scenario that needs to be taken into account while planning a China strategy,” added Small, of the German Marshall Fund.”

Democracy Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations. Beijing took over its seat in 1971. Currently, only 13 countries, including Paraguay, have formal diplomatic relations with the island. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She said Beijing believes U.S. support may embolden current or future leaders in Taiwan to pursue independence. [...] In addition, China’s foreign ministry said that Beijing opposes any official interaction between Taiwan and the U.S. and that the Taiwan issue is the insurmountable red line that cannot be crossed in U.S.-China relations. "The Chinese are very alarmed about what could happen and they are warning that their red lines should be taken seriously," Glaser said. [...] Glaser said that while Beijing’s response will likely be determined by the agenda during Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., the outside world should not rule out any possible scenarios. "[Even though] I don’t think Lai will do any public events, if he did give a speech or said something that is viewed as provocative by the Chinese leadership, that would give them a reason to do something in the military realm," she said. Still, she said she thinks Beijing would have to be "very alarmed" by things that Lai did in order to execute a military response that matches what they did when Pelosi visited Taiwan.”

Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business

Pese al optimismo de la política, Jacob Kirkegaard, del centro de estudios German Marshall Fund, considera que Global Gateway no es una alternativa sólida a la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china y no puede competir con esa iniciativa de Pekín. Afirma que la estrategia de la Unión Europea no está teniendo los resultados concretos necesarios para ser “una competidora seria” ante la Nueva Ruta de la Seda. Para Kirkegaard, el “problema” es que el club comunitario “no suele querer prestar” para que se puedan realizar los proyectos que los países de bajos ingresos desean construir. Alberto Ángel Fernández, Ralph Gonsalves, Charles Michel y Ursula von der Leyen, en la cumbre de la CELACEFE/EPA/Olivier Matthys No obstante, el analista manifiesta que Global Gateway continuará existiendo en el medio y largo plazo, pero “principalmente como postureo ético” del club comunitario. “Realmente no abaratará las infraestructuras para los mercados emergentes ni reducirá la influencia de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china”, comenta sobre Global Gateway. En opinión de Kirkegaard, la repercusión de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china disminuirá “debido a la menor voluntad china de financiarla, no a las acciones de la UE”. “La infraestructura de la Unión Europea seguirá siendo financiada principalmente a través del Banco Europeo de Inversiones en todo el mundo”, expone.”

Translated from Spanish
Defense Cooperation Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

But the strategy paper confirmed a shift. It did not talk of hope of “Wandel durch Handel“ (change through trade), once a motto of the Merkel era. “De-risking is urgently needed,” the document said, using the now standard language of EU and American officials when referring to the dangers of over-reliance on economic ties with China. It echoed the EU’s labelling of China as a “systemic rival” and said China’s friendly relations with Russia had “direct security implications for Germany”. It warned that military escalation by China in the Taiwan Strait would “affect German and European interests”. The paper promised that Germany would co-ordinate “more closely” with its partners in the EU on China matters. It did mention a relationship of trust: with America. Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a research centre, calls the language “markedly different from where we were with Merkel and the way she was willing to frame things”. Business decisions Mr Small says that, though large German firms have expressed support for the strategy, “they haven’t jumped in to embrace it”. They have much at stake. According to the Rhodium Group, a research firm, Germany’s three big carmakers—BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen—plus BASF, a chemicals giant, accounted for more than one-third of all European direct investment in China between 2018 and 2021. But the paper is softer than a version that was leaked in November: no more talk of “stress tests” of German companies that are heavily involved in China, or making them “specify and summarise relevant China-related developments”. De-risking, it appears, will be up to businesses themselves. Some of them may not share the government’s sense of urgency.”

Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business Ukraine Reconstruction

Turkey’s trade with Russia nearly doubled last year to $68.2 billion, feeding U.S. suspicions that Moscow is using Ankara to bypass Western sanctions. Turkey says the increase is largely due to higher energy costs. Their relationship is often characterized as transactional. Despite being on opposing sides in fighting in Syria, Libya and the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have cooperated in areas like energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said the relationship’s dual nature dates back to the sultans and czars. “Sometimes they compete, sometimes they cooperate. At other times they both compete and cooperate at the same time,” he said. While the pendulum seems to have swung in Ankara’s favor for now, Unluhisarcikli noted the Kremlin has a few levers to pull, such as canceling a deferment of gas payments or removing financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow also could hurt Turkey by restricting Russian tourists, who visit in greater numbers than any other nationality. offering a steady flow of cash. “How much weaker the relationship gets depends on how Russia responds to Turkey getting closer to the West,” he said.”

Authoritarian Interference Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

“FAU is aware that under these contracts CSC scholarship holders will be unable to fully exercise their academic freedom and freedom of expression as stipulated under German Basic Law,” the email said. Such wording in contracts “would be unthinkable in Germany, I don’t think you could have this kind of contract with any scholarship holder here”, Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow working on China at the German Marshall Fund think tank in Berlin, told University World News. “Some of the issues in the contract have caused some debate here in Germany. Universities have to ensure people can enjoy the rights they’re normally guaranteed in Germany, like anybody else, such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression,” she said. More German universities are expected to follow suit. But “it’s probably going to be a hard decision for most universities”, Ohlberg noted. [...] As indicated by FAU, the contract requires them to report back to the Chinese embassy on a regular basis, with violations of the conditions subject to disciplinary action. The contract also stipulated that they must return to China after their PhD and that the terms of the CSC contract only expired after two years of having returned home. According to Ohlberg, who has seen older versions of the CSC contract, if they are in breach, “[t]hey can technically be asked to repay the scholarship, plus some additional fee on top”. If the person breaks the contract, for example by staying abroad, and does not pay back the money, then the two people that are forced to remain in China would have to pay. “It also sends a political message, that also adds additional incentive and additional pressure on the person not to do anything that could be seen as breaking the contract,” Ohlberg said.”

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