Press
Read the latest news and commentary from the German Marshall Fund.
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officer directly:
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officer directly:
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
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“ Xi must show resolve. He has to shore up Chinese red lines and prevent further drift toward an unacceptable outcome — US support for Taiwan independence.”
“ We all know how bad this relationship has been in the past year. And I just think that this visit by Nancy Pelosi is just going to take it to a new low. And I think that it’s going to be very difficult to recover from that.”
“ [Xi] may particularly feel that he can't be seen as soft on the United States and therefore react even more strongly than he might otherwise.”
“ But the probability that the PRC will take a series of military, economic, and diplomatic actions to show strength and resolve is not insignificant. Likely it will seek to punish Taiwan in myriad ways.”
“ How forcefully mainland China’s military responds will depend in part on how Speaker Pelosi handles the visit. Will she do things publicly or privately?... Will there be some footage of her meeting with President Tsai? I think all of those will have some impact on how the Chinese react at this point. But I am confident that their reaction will be beyond what they did in 1996, firing missiles around the Taiwan Strait. ”
“ The probability that the PRC will take a series of military, economic, and diplomatic actions to show strength and resolve is not insignificant. Likely it will seek to punish Taiwan in myriad ways. The probability of war or a serious incident is low. ”
“ The officials fear that Biden’s attempts to repair a fractured system are temporary, like glue holding together a shattered vase... Other governments, including those that have turned toward their own populist authoritarian leaders like Hungary’s Orban, see a potential Trump return as a boon. They are — unwisely — gaming out our polarization and hope it will work for their side. It’s very, very risky.”
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