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September 27, 2024

US Interests and African Agendas: Africa Policy After the 2024 Elections

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Amandine Gnanguênon
September 27, 2024

The Draghi Report’s Mixed Picture for Central and Eastern Europe

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Michal Hrubý
September 26, 2024

Michal Baranowski joins BBC News | Zelenskyy Speaks at the UN General Assembly

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Michal Baranowski

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Defense Cooperation Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

“ But the strategy paper confirmed a shift. It did not talk of hope of “Wandel durch Handel“ (change through trade), once a motto of the Merkel era. “De-risking is urgently needed,” the document said, using the now standard language of EU and American officials when referring to the dangers of over-reliance on economic ties with China. It echoed the EU’s labelling of China as a “systemic rival” and said China’s friendly relations with Russia had “direct security implications for Germany”. It warned that military escalation by China in the Taiwan Strait would “affect German and European interests”. The paper promised that Germany would co-ordinate “more closely” with its partners in the EU on China matters. It did mention a relationship of trust: with America. Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a research centre, calls the language “markedly different from where we were with Merkel and the way she was willing to frame things”. Business decisions Mr Small says that, though large German firms have expressed support for the strategy, “they haven’t jumped in to embrace it”. They have much at stake. According to the Rhodium Group, a research firm, Germany’s three big carmakers—BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen—plus BASF, a chemicals giant, accounted for more than one-third of all European direct investment in China between 2018 and 2021. But the paper is softer than a version that was leaked in November: no more talk of “stress tests” of German companies that are heavily involved in China, or making them “specify and summarise relevant China-related developments”. De-risking, it appears, will be up to businesses themselves. Some of them may not share the government’s sense of urgency.”

Business Announcer
by
Andrew Small
Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business Ukraine Reconstruction

“ Turkey’s trade with Russia nearly doubled last year to $68.2 billion, feeding U.S. suspicions that Moscow is using Ankara to bypass Western sanctions. Turkey says the increase is largely due to higher energy costs. Their relationship is often characterized as transactional. Despite being on opposing sides in fighting in Syria, Libya and the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have cooperated in areas like energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said the relationship’s dual nature dates back to the sultans and czars. “Sometimes they compete, sometimes they cooperate. At other times they both compete and cooperate at the same time,” he said. While the pendulum seems to have swung in Ankara’s favor for now, Unluhisarcikli noted the Kremlin has a few levers to pull, such as canceling a deferment of gas payments or removing financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow also could hurt Turkey by restricting Russian tourists, who visit in greater numbers than any other nationality. offering a steady flow of cash. “How much weaker the relationship gets depends on how Russia responds to Turkey getting closer to the West,” he said.”

Associated Press
by
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
Democracy Domestic Politics and Society Elections

“ Once in power, the PP may take up its traditional backseat in EU politics, said Kirstina Kausch, a Madrid-based senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund, and not make any major waves. “I worry more about the rise of the Spanish Right in the European Parliament elections and a stronger conservative majority. Imagine what would have happened with the Nature Restoration Act. Maybe the Parliament would have rejected it,” she said.”

The Telegraph
by
Kristina Kausch
Authoritarian Interference Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics

“ “FAU is aware that under these contracts CSC scholarship holders will be unable to fully exercise their academic freedom and freedom of expression as stipulated under German Basic Law,” the email said. Such wording in contracts “would be unthinkable in Germany, I don’t think you could have this kind of contract with any scholarship holder here”, Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow working on China at the German Marshall Fund think tank in Berlin, told University World News. “Some of the issues in the contract have caused some debate here in Germany. Universities have to ensure people can enjoy the rights they’re normally guaranteed in Germany, like anybody else, such as freedom of speech, freedom of expression,” she said. More German universities are expected to follow suit. But “it’s probably going to be a hard decision for most universities”, Ohlberg noted. [...] As indicated by FAU, the contract requires them to report back to the Chinese embassy on a regular basis, with violations of the conditions subject to disciplinary action. The contract also stipulated that they must return to China after their PhD and that the terms of the CSC contract only expired after two years of having returned home. According to Ohlberg, who has seen older versions of the CSC contract, if they are in breach, “[t]hey can technically be asked to repay the scholarship, plus some additional fee on top”. If the person breaks the contract, for example by staying abroad, and does not pay back the money, then the two people that are forced to remain in China would have to pay. “It also sends a political message, that also adds additional incentive and additional pressure on the person not to do anything that could be seen as breaking the contract,” Ohlberg said.”

University World News
by
Mareike Ohlberg
Defense Cooperation NATO Security and Geopolitics

“ But those plans, and the dollars, euros and political will to fulfill them, remain in doubt. And nowhere are those doubts deeper than in the Baltic states, where Russia’s threat is existential. “If you want to prove that the alliance is real and credible, this is the place,” said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund, which organized a research trip to Latvia for several transatlantic security experts and me this month.”

Washington Post
by
Kristine Berzina
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