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Read the latest news and commentary from the German Marshall Fund.
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officers directly:
Chris Schaefer, Press Officer, at +1 202 642 7727 or [email protected]
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Or contact the press officers directly:
Chris Schaefer, Press Officer, at +1 202 642 7727 or [email protected]
Angelina Sutalo, Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected].
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“ How forcefully mainland China’s military responds will depend in part on how Speaker Pelosi handles the visit. Will she do things publicly or privately?... Will there be some footage of her meeting with President Tsai? I think all of those will have some impact on how the Chinese react at this point. But I am confident that their reaction will be beyond what they did in 1996, firing missiles around the Taiwan Strait. ”
“ [Xi] may particularly feel that he can't be seen as soft on the United States and therefore react even more strongly than he might otherwise.”
“ A trip right now could be the single spark [that] could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis.”
“ The probability that the PRC will take a series of military, economic, and diplomatic actions to show strength and resolve is not insignificant. Likely it will seek to punish Taiwan in myriad ways. The probability of war or a serious incident is low. ”
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July 28, 2022
The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s ambitions have risen along with its military power and it may...