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NATO Security and Geopolitics

So when Ukraine applied for NATO membership a few months after the outbreak of war, he reacted cautiously. "Ukraine's accession would be perceived by Russia as a confrontation," he told Le Monde newspaper in December. "Macron has long been convinced that you have to shape European security with Russia and not against Russia," says Gesine Weber. She is a France expert at the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund. "France therefore rejected Ukrainian accession for a long time because they feared it could be perceived as a threat by Moscow." (...) This has led to a huge outcry among France's allies and shown Macron that he is not getting any closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by telling the press his uncoordinated, abstract ideas," said France expert Weber. "He realized that he can show leadership at the same time and get closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by speaking out in favor of Ukraine joining NATO." (…) "Giving Ukraine security guarantees outside of NATO in the long term would also be damn expensive for France," Weber says. At the same time, Macron's confidence in NATO as a guarantor of security has grown. While he declared it "brain dead" in 2017, he said in May that Article Five is having its full effect. "It keeps Russia in check," Macron said. Letting Kiev share in it is thus the more favorable alternative for Paris.”

Translated from German
Defense Cooperation Global Implications of China's Rise NATO Security and Geopolitics

“The conflict in Ukraine shifted things,” said Andrew Small, a senior trans-Atlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program. “There is more appreciation now [in the EU] of how Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic are more intertwined.” [...] Large-scale Chinese investments in critical European infrastructure are also believed to carry security risks. Chinese investments in European ports have been particularly controversial because ports are counted as strategic assets. Some of these European ports are, naturally, logistical hubs for NATO equipment. “How could China use its control of critical European infrastructure in a wartime scenario? That’s a relevant question and a military scenario that needs to be taken into account while planning a China strategy,” added Small, of the German Marshall Fund.”

Defense Cooperation NATO Security and Geopolitics

But those plans, and the dollars, euros and political will to fulfill them, remain in doubt. And nowhere are those doubts deeper than in the Baltic states, where Russia’s threat is existential. “If you want to prove that the alliance is real and credible, this is the place,” said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund, which organized a research trip to Latvia for several transatlantic security experts and me this month.”

Defense Cooperation NATO Security and Geopolitics Ukraine Reconstruction

“The summit outcome reflects the basic reality that NATO is a U.S. security commitment to, as the strongest military power in the world, defend other eligible countries. Hence NATO will always only move at the speed of Washington, which right now is fixated on China in the long-run,” Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNBC via email.”

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