What Bulgaria Expects from the Next U.S. President
Central and Eastern European Perspectives on the U.S. Election
There are two good jokes about U.S. President Donald Trump in Bulgaria. The first is that the United States had its first Balkan president elected in 2016. The second is that the U.S. president can learn about populism from Boyko Borisov, the country’s controversial prime minister who has been facing anti-government protests for months. Both jokes point to the strongman type of politician that Bulgarians have known for years. The Bulgarian Trump Society probably takes umbrage at these jokes. Intellectuals and politicians in this circle—figures with pro-Russian views—argue that the Trump doctrine has forged a new world order: one with a more balanced relationship with Russia.
Bulgarians are not overly enthusiastic about the upcoming U.S. election, though there are hopes that the next administration will deal with major issues such as visa liberalization, a new F-16 fighter jet deal, and the future of key energy projects. Borisov’s message when he met with Trump in November 2019 in the White House was: “The Bulgarians like you so much, and they expect you to solve the visa problem.” Borisov took the chance to raise this long-standing matter with the U.S. president, hoping that Bulgarians will soon be able to travel to the United States visa-free. But the issue is still unresolved and is likely to remain so for a while, regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins the election. Ultimately, Bulgaria’s aspiration to join the visa-waiver program depends on how the current political crisis in the country evolves and what effects coronavirus restrictions will have on U.S. entry policies in coming years.
If there is a second Trump term, it is likely that Bulgaria will be encouraged to sign a new deal for F-16 fighter jets, one element in the modernization plans for its military. At the 2019 meeting with Borisov, Trump noted Bulgaria’s recent purchase of eight F-16 aircraft and praised the NATO member’s decision to increase defense spending to 3.1 percent of GDP. Having a new deal sooner rather than later would benefit Trump’s desire to show that he is doing something for U.S. industry. The already purchased F-16s are expected in Bulgaria in 2023, which may be another occasion for Trump, if elected, to emphasize the economic and military cooperation with Bulgaria.
For the United States, it is important that Bulgaria and the region diversify their energy sources, so as not to be entirely dependent on Russia. On this ground, the Trump administration has opposed the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and the extension of Russia‘s TurkStream pipeline to Bulgaria. The U.S. sanctions against TurkStream that were adopted in July threaten its future. Meanwhile, the United States encourages the construction of the gas connection between Bulgaria and Greece, because it wants to export liquefied natural gas to the region.
Strategically, Bulgaria holds a key geographical position. Turkey’s proximity is a strong geopolitical factor that interests the United States. Meanwhile Russia has a solid influence in Bulgaria due to historical, cultural, and political links. Trump has not pushed Bulgaria to distance itself from Russia. This is likely to change if Joe Biden is elected.
The difference in the approach of the next U.S. administration toward Bulgaria and countries in the region will be one between security issues and democratic engagement. If Trump remains in power, attention to media freedom, judicial reforms, and human rights are less likely to be a top priority, although under his administration the U.S. embassy in Sofia has declared itself against corruption, in support of the anti-government protests, and for judicial reform. But new military deals seem to mean more. In addition, the renewed interest of the United States in the Balkans—such as the Kosovo-Serbia talks—is seen as an attempt by Trump to boost his foreign policy record. This approach may be used further in a second term. Bulgaria can also benefit from this interest as the country that has put the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans on its agenda.
If 2021 brings a new U.S. administration, it is likely that Washington’s focus on the region will remain in light of geopolitical competition with China and Russia. With a Biden administration Bulgaria can expect more attention paid to corruption, lack of transparency, and rule of law and media freedom. In recent years, the country has been ranked by Reporters Without Borders 111th in the world when it comes to press freedom. It is also ranked among the most corrupt countries in the EU by 2019 Corruption Perception Index. A Biden administration would focus more on the country‘s systemic problems that have remained unsolved since it joined the EU.
Populists and nationalists in Bulgaria, and more generally in all of Southeastern Europe, see Trump as an ideological ally, especially when it comes to issues such as migration and human rights. If Trump loses, there will be a void in the political leadership of the global right. The far-right groups that have felt empowered by racist, homophobic, and anti-globalist narratives in recent years may start losing popularity if fresh wind blows from the United States.
This is part of our series on the policy implications of the 2020 U.S. elections for U.S. allies—you’ll find the rest of the series HERE.