Viennese Whirl

With migration and internal security dominating the political discourse, the results reflect a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape. 

The radical-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) won the election, a first, with 28.9% of the vote. This gives the party a theoretical claim to the chancellorship, raising profound concerns about the future of Austrian democracy.

Unlike many European countries, Austria does not traditionally apply a cordon sanitaire to the radical right. The FPÖ has joined past governing coalitions, serving as the junior partner to the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) from 2000 to 2007 and from 2017 to 2019. A crucial difference, however, exists between the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition and the prospect of its leading a government. 

Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ’s charismatic leader and chancellor candidate, is a savvy politician who openly admires the illiberal political strategies of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Kickl’s campaign included promises of "remigration" policies targeting unwanted foreigners. Though the ÖVP, which came in second with 26.3% of the vote, has not ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ, it has made clear that it would not enter such an alliance if Kickl is in the government.

The election results have positioned the ÖVP as kingmaker, but it faces a crucial choice: align with the FPÖ and risk empowering a radical right-wing government or seek an alternative coalition that could prove politically and ideologically challenging. A coalition with the Social Democrats (SPÖ), which garnered 21.1% of the vote, and the liberal NEOS (9.1%) is one option. However, given the ÖVP’s poor experience with its outgoing coalition with the Greens, and significant policy divergences with the SPÖ on economic and tax matters, this path is fraught with difficulty. The business-friendly Neos could help bridge some of the gaps, but forging a workable coalition could take time, and there are fears that such an alliance may ultimately bolster the FPÖ by sidelining them.

Alternatively, the ÖVP could accept a junior role in a coalition with the FPÖ, as policies on migration and the economy align more closely. However, the conservative leadership is adamant about keeping Kickl, who led the FPÖ to its historic victory, out of the government—a demand that the FPÖ is unlikely to concede.

Austria’s Green president, Alexander Van der Bellen, holds significant sway in this scenario. He appoints the chancellor and has made it clear that his choice depends on the formation of a parliamentary majority and a firm commitment to democratic values, including the rule of law, human and minority rights, and media pluralism. He has also emphasized that the time dedicated to coalition negotiations is an investment in the country's political future. With his calm and measured approach, he helped establish a political framework necessary for ÖVP-SPÖ-NEOS coalition talks while actively discouraging the ÖVP from collaborating with non-democratic forces.

Yet, crucial questions remain. If the ÖVP chooses to form a government with the FPÖ, can Van der Bellen deny the appointment of an FPÖ chancellor? Can Austria's democratic checks and balances withstand the pressure of implementing an illiberal agenda? And can the EU cope with the rise of another pro-Moscow, radical-right government that challenges the bloc’s sanctions regime against Russia?