U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor: What Allies and Partners Need to Know - December 11

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GMF Editorial Staff
8 min read
Photo Credit: Keith J Finks / Shutterstock
Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress.
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Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress. This week the Monitor is taking a closer look at the historic nomination of General Lloyd Austin to be the next secretary of defense and on the future of U.S. policy toward Iran under the Biden administration. Sign up here to receive every Friday in your inbox.

The Topline

The big transition news this week was the announcement of retired General Llyod Austin as the nominee for secretary of defense. The news was greeted with an array of reactions in Washington. Mr. Austin’s nomination is historic, as he would be the first African-American secretary of defense, and was welcomed as such by most commentators. But it was also greeted with some surprise, as most observers had expected former Under Secretary of Defense Michèle Flournoy to be the nominee and the first woman in that role. Moreover, the nomination of a retired general immediately led to a heated debate about the future of civil-military relations and the long-established norm of civilians running the Pentagon.

General Austin’s nomination would require a waiver passed by Congress, given that he has not been retired from the military for the mandated period of seven years. The debate has created somewhat of a political headache for the Biden transition and the president-elect himself took to the pages of the Atlantic to explain his rationale for General Austin’s nomination. (More on General Austin below.)

 

So What - In Focus This Week

U.S. policy toward Iran will be one of the immediate foreign policy challenges for the incoming Biden administration. During the campaign, Biden repeatedly expressed his intention to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, if elected, but also emphasized that he saw this as a “starting point for follow-on negotiations.” In his two-page briefer on “What to Expect from the Biden Administration on Iran,” GMF Senior Visiting Fellow Edgar P. Tam, explains how this call for additional agreements may appear similar to some of the aspects of the Trump administration’s policy, but Tam argues the Biden’s administration’s approach to achieving its objectives on Iran will differ in several aspects.

Read the full article here.

 

Who to Watch

If confirmed by the Senate, Janet Yellen will be the first woman to serve as treasury secretary in the Department’s 231-year history. An academic by training, Yellen served in a number of positions within the U.S. Federal Reserve—including as the head of its San Francisco Bank, a fed governor, fed vice chair, and as the first woman to lead the institution during the Obama administration. During her term as chair, unemployment dropped from 6.7 percent to 4.1 percent, and inflation remained at low rates. Despite high performance and plaudits, Yellen’s tenure was cut short after President Trump refused to renominate her for a second term. For the past two years, Yellen worked as a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank. Raised in working-class Brooklyn, economics runs in the Yellen family—her husband, George Akerlof, is a Nobel Prize-winning economist and her son, Robert, teaches economics in the United Kingdom.

  • To better understand Yellen’s background and the issues that will animate her tenure as treasury secretary, read her remarks delivered upon accepting her nomination.
  • This 2017 speech is vintage Yellen—in it, she meditates on the Fed’s limitations—demonstrating her characteristic humility and analytical rigor.
  • For a better idea of Yellen’s accomplishments prior serving as fed chair, check out then-President Obama’s remarks announcing her nomination to lead the central bank.
    • Highlight: “Janet is renowned for her good judgment.  She sounded the alarm early about the housing bubble, about excesses in the financial sector, and about the risks of a major recession.”

President-elect Biden nominated Lloyd Austin III to serve as secretary of defense. A retired Army General, Austin’s military career broke ground in several ways—despite 200 individuals attaining the rank of Army 4-star General, he was only the sixth African American to do so; he was also the first African American to “command a U.S. Army Division in combat, to lead a Corps in combat, to command an entire theater of war, to serve as Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, and to serve as Commander of U.S. Central Command.” Unlike many generals who served in similar postings, Austin eschewed the media spotlight and avoided public engagement. A graduate of the United States Military Academy—commonly known as West Point—Austin deployed to West Germany with the 3rd Infantry Division for his first posting as a young lieutenant. Austin’s connection with the president-elect is personal—Biden’s late son, Beau, deployed to Iraq as a lawyer serving on then-General Austin’s staff.

  • As a recently retired military officer, Austin’s appointment will require a special waiver from Congress. This ignited a lively debate amongst defense policy experts regarding the implication of Austin’s nomination for civil-military relations. See here for two opinion pieces written by opponents of his nomination, and here for President-elect Biden’s response.
  • Learn more by watching then-General’s Austin’s confirmation hearing to serve as commander of the United States Central Command.

 

What to Read 

PEOPLE AND APPOINTMENTS:

Biden’s Pentagon Pick Reignites Debate Over Civilian Control of Military, Jennifer Steinhauer, Eric Schmitt and Luke Broadwater, The New York Times.

“Many lawmakers said they reluctantly voted for a waiver for Mr. Mattis to provide a seasoned counterbalance to Mr. Trump’s inexperience and bombastic style, and now question the need to violate a cornerstone of American national security policy so quickly again. An approval for General Austin would underscore how deeply Mr. Trump has altered the norms in civilian oversight of the military.”

Biden’s Pentagon pick frustrates women who sought a different history-maker, Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi, Politico.

“As President Barack Obama’s Pentagon policy chief, Michèle Flournoy nurtured a new generation of women in national security who have long pushed for her appointment as the first female Defense secretary. Now that President-elect Joe Biden has passed over Flournoy, those same women are outraged over what they say is a missed opportunity to make history.”

Jake Sullivan to the rescue, The Economist.

“On his core responsibilities—which will include restoring sanity to the inter-agency process and managing the rivalries it breeds—he will…start with big advantages. He knows Mr Biden’s mind and has his confidence; the president-elect calls him a “once in a generation intellect”. He has comradely relationships with Tony Blinken and other senior Biden nominees—and a habit of continually questioning his own assumptions which creates an impression of open debate.”

Biden selects Becerra to lead Health and Human Services, Tyler Pager, Adam Cancryn and Alice Miranda Ollstein, Politico.

“Biden’s decision to choose Becerra for the top health post marks the conclusion of a turbulent process in which the Biden camp had to scramble to fill one of the administration's leading health positions as they prepare to take on the country’s worst health crisis in more than a century. The president-elect team’s focus on setting up a pandemic response team within the White House has raised questions about the role the health secretary will play in the Biden administration…”

ON POLICY:

The United States Must Marshal the ‘Free World’, Alexander Vindman, Foreign Affairs.

“Biden will need to marshal the very strengths that define democratic government if he is to both mend domestic wounds and temper the threats that face democracies globally.”

Biden’s challenges on foreign policy, Karen DeYoung, Paul Sonne, Joby Warrick, Dan Lamothe, Carol Morello and Anne Gearan, The Washington Post.

“…Biden faces competing priorities, congressional hurdles and wary, if welcoming, allies. In some cases, such as with North Korea and Venezuela, the most daunting obstacle to foreign policy success is the one that has bedeviled several presidents before him. There are no good options.”

The Hidden Dangers in Biden’s Foreign Policy: The president-elect’s stated agenda will antagonize China and lead to conflict, Ryan P. Burke, Defense One.

“China will not be contained absent military confrontation. Biden’s campaign trail charge to “get tough with China,” prodded by Donald Trump, returns to dangerous Cold War-era communist containment strategies that will antagonize Beijing and escalate tensions. Instead, Biden should get smart — and pursue a favorable bipolar balance of power between the United States and China.”

Biden Needs to Go Big on the Climate, Rep. Raul M. Grijalva, Politico.

“For too long, ‘climate’ policy has been treated as a discrete bucket of ideas divorced from our wider reality. It’s now clear that our entire national policy portfolio—economic development, transportation planning, housing and urban renewal, agricultural practices, not to mention oil and gas drilling—is really about climate change and how we intend to deal with it.”

Biden Promises 100 Million Vaccine Shots in 100 Days, but Shortage Worries Rise, Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Sharon LaFraniere, The New York Times

“President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., setting ambitious goals to change the course of the coronavirus pandemic, vowed on Tuesday to get “at least 100 million Covid vaccine shots into the arms of the American people” during his first 100 days in office, and said he would make it a “national priority” to get children back to school during that time.”

There Is Only One Way Out of Afghanistan: And It Requires Cooperating With Regional Powers, Barnett R. Rub, Foreign Affairs.

“The Biden administration should continue to draw down troops in accordance with the agreement the administration of President Donald Trump signed with the Taliban in February 2020—though it could seek to adjust the timeline, since implementation of parts of the agreement has been delayed. But it should draw down as part of a coordinated regional strategy that seeks to capitalize on areas of alignment between the United States and regional powers.”

 

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