Turkish Perceptions Survey: Support for isolationism, more restrictive refugee policy, and focus on domestic issues grows; exceptions for fighting ISIS and EU membership

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Turkish Perceptions Survey: Support for isolationism, more restrictive refugee policy, and focus on domestic issues grows; exceptions for fighting ISIS and EU membership

~ Current economic situation not good; expectations not any better ~

~ Negative opinion of other countries, distrust toward international institutions ~

~ Opinions of possible EU membership remain reasonably positive ~

~ Turks overwhelmingly think the government should focus on domestic problems ~

~ Plurality of Turks think Turkey should act alone on international matters. ~

~ Little support for sending troops to Syria to create a buffer zone, except if it is against ISIS ~

~ Majorities concerned about refugees and want a more restrictive refugee policy ~

The Turkish Perceptions survey shows the impact of recent developments on the perceptions of Turkish citizens on both domestic and foreign policy issues. The survey includes data on economics, transatlantic relations, foreign and security policy, and immigration. This data is comparable to the Transatlantic Trends survey, which the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) conducted annually between 2003 and 2014.

For the full report and topline data, see:

http://www.gmfus.org/initiatives/turkish-perceptions-survey

For your questions and interview requests, please contact:

In Turkey, Hacer Kalay (Istanbul), [email protected] or +90 212 275 01 45 or Ceylan Canbilek (Ankara), [email protected] or +90 312 447 4080

In the United States, Kelsey Glover (Washington), [email protected] or +1 202 683 2648

In Europe, Sarah Halls (Brussels), [email protected] or +32 484 491 078

KEY FINDINGS

The Economy and Domestic Issues

• Forty-seven percent of respondents said that the economy got worse over the last five years; 39% said it got better. When asked about the specific economic situation of their family, 43% said it got worse over the last five years as opposed to 29% who said it got better.

• When asked about the next 12 months, 44% of respondents said that they expected Turkey’s economic situation to get worse whereas 28% expected it to get better. Similarly, 38% of respondents expected their family’s economic situation to get worse over the next 12 months; 24% expected it to get better.
• When asked about the most important issue facing Turkey, a plurality of respondents named either the economy (28%) or unemployment (23%). Terrorism came third with 16%, followed by education (7%) and immigration (7%).

Transatlantic Relations

• The respondents of the survey had generally unfavorable opinions of other countries except those with which there are kinship ties such as Azerbaijan. That country was seen favorably by 63% of respondents. The European Union and Germany enjoyed the favorable views of 41% and 38% of respondents, respectively. The United States, a strategic ally, was only seen favorably by 23%.
• Russia was viewed favorably by 26% of respondents. Iran and Northern Iraq were very close to Russia’s score, above 20%. The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq was viewed favorably by 22% of respondents, slightly above the Central Government of Iraq, which was viewed favorably by 17% of respondents. Two other neighboring countries, Greece and Syria were viewed with disfavor at similar levels (15% and 14%, respectively).
• In addition to widely unfavorable views about other countries, Turks generally distrusted international institutions. The European Union was only trusted by 39% of respondents. NATO and the United Nations were found trustworthy only by one-third of respondents.
• The survey also revealed that many Turks view global leadership by the United States, EU, or Russia as undesirable. Only 29% of Turks found the EU’s leadership in world affairs desirable, while desirability of U.S. and Russian leadership was 26% and 22%, respectively.
• When asked, just 29% of respondents said that they approve of U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration’s foreign policies. While favorability of the United States and approval of Obama’s foreign policies are low in Turkey, perceptions about the state of U.S.-Turkey relations remain relatively positive. Just over half (51%) of respondents think that U.S.-Turkey relations can be characterized as good, as opposed to 35% who have a negative perception about the nature of the relationship.
• Respondents also displayed a significant preference for Turkish unilateralism in international relations. When asked with whom Turkey should cooperate on international matters, 30% said that Turkey should act alone. On the other hand, 25% said it should cooperate with the countries of the European Union and 14% preferred the United States. Ten percent of respondents said Turkey should cooperate with countries of the Middle East; only 4% gave the nod to Russia.
• Respondents were divided over whether NATO was still essential for Turkey’s security: 38% of respondents said it was still essential and 35% said it no longer was. A relatively high level of the “no idea/don’t know” answer (27%) may be an indicator of a lower level of awareness among Turkish public about the role of NATO.
• Forty-three percept of respondents think that full-membership in the EU would be beneficial for the Turkish economy; 23% think it would be bad.

Foreign Policy and Security

• The survey highlighted a strong isolationist tendency among the Turkish public on foreign policy. Seventy percent of respondents said that Turkey should deal first with its internal problems; only 20% said that Turkey should play a more active role in the Middle East, Balkans, and Central Asia.
• A majority (51%) of the respondents disapproved of Turkey’s current foreign policy, while 41% approved of it.
• A majority (57%) of respondents were against a military intervention in Syria to support the forces fighting against the Assad regime; 29% would support military intervention. When asked about what Turkey should do if there is such an intervention, 37% said that Turkey should stay out completely; 30% said Turkey should support the intervention in non-military ways and 17% said Turkey should join the coalition actively.
• The idea of Turkey sending troops to form a buffer zone in Syria is not supported by the Turkish people, except if it is to protect the people in the region from the self-proclaimed Islamic State group (ISIS). When asked in general, only 29% of respondents supported the buffer zone idea. When asked more specifically, 35% said they would support Turkish troops participating in a buffer zone to protect the Syrian opposition from the Assad regime and 37% said they would support a buffer zone against the Democratic Union Party (PYD) to prevent the formation of a Kurdish zone in the region. While majorities were against sending troops under all other scenarios, a plurality (46%) supported the idea of sending troops to form a buffer zone to protect the people in the region from ISIS; 41% were not in favor.
• The survey shows that there is a broad consensus against ISIS in Turkish society. When asked, 91% of respondents said that ISIS was a terrorist organization. However, there was a diversity of opinion on whether Turkey should join the coalition against ISIS. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said that Turkey should stay out of the coalition completely, 24% said Turkey should join the coalition actively, and 23% said Turkey should support the coalition in nonmilitary ways.

Immigration

• A plurality (41%) of respondents said that there were “too many” foreigners in Turkey and 25% said there are “a lot but not too many.” A further 25% of respondents said that there were “not many” foreigners in Turkey.
• Majorities are concerned about refugees from various home regions, but particularly with those coming from Syria. Fifty-four percent of respondents said that they were worried about refugees coming from Turkic and ex-Soviet Republics, while 40% said they were not. Sixty-four percent of respondents said that they were worried about the refugees coming from African countries, while 31% said they were not. An overwhelming majority of 84% said that they were worried by refugees coming from Syria; only 14% said they were not.
• A similarly overwhelming majority of 80% of respondents thought that immigrants have not integrated well into Turkish society; only 15% said they actually do integrate well.
• When asked, 68% of respondents wanted a more restrictive refugee policy; 73% said that the existing refugees should be asked to go back home, as opposed to 17% who said it depended on the circumstances and 8% who said they should be offered legal status in Turkey.

The Turkish Perceptions survey was conducted by The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) with financial support from the U.S. Embassy in Ankara. Survey questions were developed by the project team, which included the GMF Ankara Office staff members and Infakto RW, an Istanbul-based independent research organization. Survey fieldwork was carried out between July 4 and July 13, 2015, through face-to-face interviews with 1,018 respondents. The sampling framework was designed to represent a cross-section of Turkish adults and was conducted in 16 provinces and 125 neighborhoods through a multi-stage stratified sampling scheme. Under the assumption of simple random sampling, this sample size led to a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.