Too Close to Call—Poland’s 1989 Moment

The upcoming parliamentary elections are widely seen as Poland’s most consequential since it regained independence in 1989. At stake is the future of Poland’s democratic institutions, the country’s place in the European Union, and the general direction of the country’s foreign policy in relations with its neighbors, especially Ukraine and Germany. Less than a week before the vote, the elections are too close to call, and so are unlikely to end with a clear winner able to form a stable government.

Over the past week, the polls have tightened, and barring major, unexpected developments days before the vote, the overall dynamic of the race is unlikely to change. What result, then, are we likely to see on election night? The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is likely to get the highest level of support, but not enough to form a government without a coalition partner. Currently the weighted average of support for PiS is 37.4%. The biggest liberal opposition party, the Civic Platform (PO) led by Donald Tusk, is currently polling at 30.7% and is projected to come in second. The third spot will belong to one of the liberal opposition parties—The Left (currently at 10%) or the Third Way (currently at 9.9%)—with the far-right Konfederacja right behind them, currently polling at 9.4% of the vote. The result will nevertheless be inconclusive and will herald a period of messy and difficult government formation. The relative strength of the smaller parties will force the two strongest parties to share power in a subset of possible scenarios: coalitions, minority governments, or poached MPs. In this highly emotional, aggressive, and close race, among all the options one thing is clear: Poland will face internal instability in the near future as a result of the parties’ inability to win outright majorities and the necessity of forming an unavoidably shaky coalition. Below are the possible scenarios and their potential impact.

Scenario 1: PiS and Konfederacja Coalition

Given that PiS is likely to finish with the highest number of seats, President Andrzej Duda will offer the first chance to form the government to its candidate for prime minister. PiS will need a coalition partner, and the only one willing to negotiate is far-right Konfederacja. Although the two parties are ideologically close when it comes to views on Europe and social issues, they are diametrically opposed on the economy—which means that the resulting coalition would be unstable.  

Views on the EU

Conflicts with the European Union over rule-of-law measures will persist and intensify. The government will refuse to compromise and will reject EU policies on migration, climate, and agriculture. Relations with Germany will further deteriorate. Anti-EU sentiment will rise to the extent that if the government manages to survive until the next Presidential election in 2025, it might even consider a referendum on Poland’s EU membership.  

Views on the United States and NATO

Konfederacja will be more critical than PiS when it comes to proposed new military and other contracts with the United States because they are against any type of “foreign intervention” into Polish affairs. They favor spurring Polish industry over foreign investment.

Views on Ukraine

Support for Ukraine will continue, but it will become more transactional. Because PiS and Konfederacja have strongly divergent socioeconomic outlooks, the conservative political alliance headed by PiS party leader Jarosław Kaczyński, United Right, will have to make concessions to far-right Konfederacja on issues that are less important to them—such as support for Ukraine. Poland will therefore make EU enlargement more difficult.

Scenario 2: Liberal Centrist Government Led by the Current Opposition

If PiS is not able to form a coalition with Konfederacja, the Civic Platform led by Donald Tusk will have an opportunity to form a government in coalition with the Third Way and The Left. Even then, the government will struggle to consolidate internal fractions and deal with a right-wing president who will have the power to veto reforms.

Views on the EU

Relations will improve, and we should expect a consensus-seeking approach to various policies (climate, migration, agriculture). A top priority would be to unlock EU funds by following through on the guidelines set out by the EU Commission. President Duda’s veto power and PiS’ continued control over key judicial institutions would likely slow down and frustrate the process of judicial reform.

Views on the United States and NATO

Relations with the United States and NATO would remain strong. The government would continue to invest in relations with Washington, including through purchases for the security and defense complex, but would seek to balance these by closer cooperation with the European defense sector.

Views on Ukraine

Poland would continue to support Ukraine diplomatically and militarily through EU mechanisms. Improved relations with the EU and Germany will positively affect Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Scenario 3: A PiS Majority Government

PiS and the United Right could win an outright majority only if one of the liberal opposition parties fails to clear the electoral threshold. This government would continue current policies, with a  focus on further consolidating control over the justice system and pressuring the independent media. Foreign policy will continue to be a function of domestic politics.

Views on the EU

Policies from the previous term will continue. Poland’s relationship with the EU will remain difficult. Warsaw will continue to criticize the EU as infringing on its sovereignty, violate the rule of law, and attack Germany for domestic gain.

Views on the United States and NATO

Policies from the previous term will continue. Warsaw will still perceive the United States as its sole security guarantor, and will maintain its practice of favoring American defense companies over European ones.

Views on Ukraine

Despite recent headlines about a potential end to Poland’s delivery of weapons, Warsaw will continue to support Ukraine. However, with limited diplomatic clout in the EU and depleted military stocks, Poland has little to offer Ukraine and Polish-Ukrainian relations will continue to deteriorate.

Scenario 4: Civic Coalition with Konfederacja

A government made up of the centrist Civic Coalition led by Tusk and the far-right Konfederacja would be weak and short-lived due to irreconcilable internal disagreements over abortion rights and EU membership. The mission of this government would be to remove PiS’ people from state-owned companies, public media, and top posts in ministries, with the ultimate aim of holding early elections on a more even playing field. 

Views on the EU

The parties would work to reverse the judicial reforms that PiS put in place. Unless these reforms are vetoed by President Duda, this would unlock frozen EU funds. However, the coalition would not be able to move forward on any other reforms (such as adopting the migration packages, climate).

Views on the United States and NATO

The parties would align on taking a more critical approach to new contracts with the United States.

Views on Ukraine

Ukraine policy would be a source of tension. The Civic Coalition would want to support Ukraine through the European Peace Facility and the European Defence Fund, while Konfederacja would resurface historical disputes with Ukraine over Volhynia and portray accession talks as based solely on economic interest rather than on values and principles.

Poland’s election will shape not only the country’s future but, that of the EU, and will impact future Western support for Ukraine. The vote is clearly Europe’s most important this year, and Poland’s most important in a generation. If, as expected, the results are inconclusive, the election may throw Europe’s fifth-largest economy, and the largest country on NATO’s eastern flank, into political turmoil for months to come.