A Scramble for Round 2
The first round of the French legislative elections on Sunday has produced the anticipated result: the far-right National Rally (RN) topped the leftist Popular Front (LFP) and, in third place, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble.
As in the European elections just a few weeks ago, the RN consolidated its position as an established force in the French political system. The party garnered on Sunday more than 10 million votes, more than doubling its support in the 2022 legislative election. In 297 of 577 constituencies, the RN candidate won a plurality of votes. Fully 39 of them won a majority and, therefore, secured parliamentary seats. In the second round of voting, 446 constituencies will have far-right candidates running.
The RN is particularly strong in rural and deindustrialized areas, but the party this time did well nationwide outside of major cities. This geographic divide reflects the failure of mainstream parties to tackle issues such as the economy and immigration, two of the greatest concerns to the French public.
Despite the RN’s strong initial showing, it is too early to predict the composition of the next National Assembly. Current projections estimate that no party will hold a majority.
Ahead of the decisive second round of voting on July 7, the electoral tactics and strategizing have already started. The LFP and Ensemble have called for their candidates who finished in third place this past weekend to withdraw from their races and endorse the remaining RN opponent, but such “Republican unity” could fracture in the coming days amid long-standing tensions between the groups on economic and social policy. Another unknown is turnout. The first round brought 67% of eligible voters to the polls, the highest since 1997. But will there be a similarly strong showing in the second round to prevent the RN from eking out a parliamentary majority?
The most likely final result is a hung parliament, which would herald political deadlock. Passing meaningful legislation will become difficult, and policymakers risk becoming more inward-looking. All this is bad news for Europe as a whole. Decisive French leadership, and that from several other EU member states, is critical to responding to the major security challenges confronting the bloc.