Safeguarding Moldova’s Presidential Election and EU Referendum: A Pre-election Risk Assessment

Introduction

The Republic of Moldova is at a turning point, facing critical decisions that will define its future. The country’s European orientation, backed by a national consensus according to recent polls, reflects citizens’ desire for stability, prosperity, and a strengthened rule of law—all of which they perceive as more accessible within the European Union. At the same time, Russia aims to thwart Moldova’s pro-European aspirations and keep the country under its influence through interference in electoral processes and hybrid warfare tactics. In the context of Russia’s hybrid war against Europe, the next 15 months will be crucial for Moldova.

The presidential election and referendum on European integration in October 2024 and the parliamentary election in 2025 will be the first voting since the EU Commission decided to open accession negotiations with Chișinău. These elections will play an important role in determining Moldova’s path and testing the country’s internal resilience in the face of external pressures. They are crucial not only for Moldova but also for its international partners, who need to assess and adjust their aid, whether it be technical assistance, economic support, or security cooperation.

Russia attempted to wreak havoc on Moldova’s democratic process in last year’s races, and there is ample reason to believe that the Kremlin will do the same during this year’s and next year’s campaigns. Moldova is again likely to find itself organizing and conducting elections while countering strenuous efforts to destabilize them.