A Risk Assesement for Georgia's 2024 Parliamentary Elections

Georgia is scheduled to hold its much-anticipated parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024. The elections are the first in Georgia since it attained European Union candidate status in December 2023 under the conditions—nine steps to full membership—set by the European Commission. One of the steps outlined by the Commission requires Georgia to ensure a credible, transparent, inclusive and peaceful elections.

The elections will be conducted under a fully proportional electoral system: Georgian citizens will elect all 150 members of parliament in a nation-wide multi-mandate constituency. Parties need to clear a 5% threshold to secure seats in the parliament. However, unlike in previous elections, party blocs are prohibited from running, and according to most public opinion polls, only two parties are unequivocally able to clear the threshold. For the opposition parties, finding a winning formula to compete in these elections became an urgent priority as the time to register for the elections was running out.

For the first time, the elections in the majority of the polling stations will be conducted using electronic tools such as ballot-scanning and -counting machines and voter identification equipment. Despite the use of technologies, the official results will be established through a manual count. While these technologies may minimize human error in the process of ballot -counting, concerns remain around the public awareness of the process and ensuring the secrecy of the vote.

Most importantly, the elections are taking place amid a high level of political polarization and aforceful power grab by the ruling Georgian Dream Party. At the end of its third term, Georgian Dream effectively controls all levels of government and the majority of state institutions, including the State Security Services, the judiciary, and the electoral administration. In May 2024, the parliament passed the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence despite the mass protests by Georgian citizens and strong condemnations by Georgia’s key allies in the EU and the United States. The passage of the law raised well-founded fears that the government aimed to further silence critical voices within civil society organizations and independent media before, during, and after the elections.

This pre-election risk assessment builds upon the findings of the previous assessment released by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) in May 2024 and analyzes key risks and challenges to democratic elections.