Republic of Moldova 2024 Presidential Election and EU Referendum: Pre-election Risk Assessment

Executive Summary

This report contains an analysis of the pre-electoral context in Moldova and the main risks emerging in the political landscape, the legal framework, the electoral administration, and the mass media. Download the full report on the left. 

With local elections completed in 2023, Moldovans will be called to the ballot box on October 20 this year to elect the country’s president and vote on a constitutional referendum regarding Moldova’s European Union membership. The elections are also influenced by voters’ and officials’ awareness of parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in 2025. These electoral exercises are crucial for shaping Moldova's future and upholding its democratic values. Factors such as new electoral legislation, the threat of Russian interference in Moldovan politics, and ongoing information warfare further challenge already overstretched Moldovan institutions. The incumbent political class is determined to stay in power and will have to maneuver through the mounting obstacles put in place by Russian-funded proxies who are capitalizing on voters’ dissatisfaction with the slow pace of the reforms. The primarily pro-Russian opposition is itself undergoing a process of realignment resulting from an ongoing fight for the role of representing Russian interests in Moldova. National electoral bodies are for the most part well prepared and experienced in conducting such elections, but they are still working to overcome several challenges—including consolidation of internal capacities in IT and campaign financial monitoring. International partners must carefully consider these aspects if they hope to help the Moldovan state conduct free and fair elections in accordance with international standards so that Moldovan citizens can freely exercise their voting rights. This pre-election risk assessment builds upon the findings of the previous assessment released by the German Marshall Fund in July 2024.

Recommendations

This pre-electoral risk assessment has highlighted key areas of concern and pointed to necessary actions to be taken in the lead-up to Moldova’s pivotal 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum. The political landscape is fraught with challenges. Several recommendations are listed here to help navigate this complex terrain.

• Bolster the capacity of Moldova’s electoral administration. This involves enhancing training programs for the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) and District Electoral Councils (DEC) members, particularly in IT and financial monitoring of political parties and electoral campaigns. Adequate resources and funding must be allocated to the CEC to improve operational efficiency and oversight of campaign financing.

• Enhance the legal framework governing elections. The final decision of the Constitutional Court regarding the right to run for office and be elected must be implemented, ensuring clarity and consistency. Stricter regulations for the registration and monitoring of political parties will prevent the recurrence of illegal practices.

• Develop comprehensive strategies to counter foreign interference, particularly from Russia. This involves strengthening cybersecurity measures and monitoring disinformation campaigns. International collaboration is essential to securing the expertise and support needed to mitigate these hybrid threats effectively.

• Enhance the capabilities of legal bodies and the CEC to detect and prevent illicit funds. Campaign financing remains a sensitive issue. Transparency in campaign financing should be promoted through public awareness campaigns and stricter reporting requirements.

• Expand voter education and engagement. Extensive campaigns should inform citizens about new electoral provisions such as mail-in voting, two-day voting, and the use of additional identification documents. These initiatives must also reach the diaspora, utilizing multiple channels and languages to maximize engagement.

• Explain the constitutional referendum’s importance and its impact on Moldova’s EU integration. Thorough information campaigns are necessary. Contingency plans must be in place to address potential low turnout or negative outcomes.

• Strengthen regulations and provide robust monitoring mechanisms for fair media coverage during elections. These steps are needed to ensure balanced reporting. Partnerships with digital platforms and independent media organizations can help combat misinformation and disinformation, ensuring that the electorate is well-informed.

• Build institutional resilience. State institutions must be strengthened to resist external pressures and maintain electoral integrity. This involves continuous training, resource allocation, and international cooperation. 

This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union and the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Its contents are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU and GMF.