America Votes 2024

Public Opinion: The US Election Three Weeks Out

October 16, 2024
What do Americans think about their forthcoming presidential election and how might their foreign policy views affect their views of the candidates? Visiting Senior Fellow Bruce Stokes looks at recent public opinion polling in the United States and highlights the interesting findings.

GMF plans one more update on polling prior to Election Day on November 5. A final update is scheduled for November 4.

Voters' Concerns

A record-high percentage of Americans think their nation is on the wrong track, but they have felt this way for 28 of the last 36 years. (Source: Mehlman Consulting).

American voters sense things are out of control and on the wrong track

 

 

Republican and Democratic voters differ on the issues they see as priorities. (Source: Gallup)

Republican and democratic voters' top five voting issues

 

Nearly half of Republicans and a quarter of Democrats want a strong leader unimpeded by Congress and the courts. (Source: Ipsos).

Republicans are more receptive to a leader with fewer limitations

American voters support more governing by executive order, but Republicans and Democrats differ on investigations of political opponents and the firing of government workers. (Source: Pew Research).

Harris, Trump supporters differ widely on acceptability of several presidential actions if their candidate wins

 

International Concerns

With another Ukraine aid bill needed from Congress next year, nearly half of Republican voters say the United States is already giving too much. (Source: Pew Research).

Republicans and Democrats remain divided over U.S. aid to Ukraine

 

Two-thirds of Americans of voting age believe that the United States should push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. (Source: Institute for Global Affairs).

 

Americans’ support for Israel has rebounded in recent months. (Source: YouGov).

The Horse Race

Nationally, Harris leads within the margin of error, although Trump leads in some crucial swing state polls. (Source: New York Times)

 

Race, education, age, and gender divide American voters. (Source: Pew Research).

 

Trump is favored among older voters and men; Harris performs better among younger voters, women

 

Pessimists prefer Trump; optimists prefer Harris. (Source: ABC News).

 

Although some polls show more voters trust Harris on the economy, this survey shows Trump still leading on that critical issue. (Source: ABC News).

 

The election will be determined by the outcome in seven swing states (in tan). Polls show the outcome in most of them is too close to call. (Source: 270 to win).

 

Three quarters of registered voters do not believe Trump will accept a loss. (Source: Pew Research).

Sharp divide in voters’ views of whether Harris and Trump will concede if they lose the election