Paris Wobbles

Instead, Emmanuel Macron says that he will quickly designate a new prime minister. Approval of the 2025 budget, which triggered the National Assembly’s no-confidence vote that toppled the old government, will be the new one’s top priority for a country that must reconcile reducing public debt, now 112% of GDP, with the need to respond to environmental, socioeconomic, and geopolitical crises.

France’s institutions and political culture are not meant to address the stalemate in the country’s legislature that has brought on the upheaval. Last summer’s parliamentary election resulted in three blocs, left, center-right, and far-right, none of which has a majority. The left and center right worked together ahead of the election to deny Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party a majority of seats. And the center right and far right cooperated on the nomination, only three months ago, of the outgoing prime minister, Michel Barnier. But the left and far right voted together this week to oust him. Short-term agreements between two of the three blocs are, therefore, possible, but a viable coalition of interests seems far-fetched.

The French constitution prevents Macron from calling a new parliamentary election before July 2025. Whether a stable government can emerge before then, especially when parties have no real political incentive to cooperate, is unclear and when passage of next year’s budget will require significant compromise between at least two blocs that have fundamentally different social and economic priorities. 

Macron will be tempted to dedicate time to foreign and defense policy issues, where he may have more control. But French leadership, in Europe and globally, is weakened by the domestic political situation. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement the day after the Paris government’s collapse, that a free trade agreement with the countries of Mercosur is finally in sight, illustrates the decline of France’s influence. Paris is openly opposed to the deal but may not be able to stop it. France’s now-chronic instability, coupled with Germany’s imminent election, does not bode well for the EU’s ability to address the urgent challenges it faces. Other member states may step up, but the political paralysis in Paris and Berlin will be costly for Europe.