New Face, Same Problem

The German parliamentary elections held on February 23 coincided with annual regional festivities known as Fasching, or Carnival. It is a time when Germans dress in costume and amuse themselves with celebrations that include satirizing politics and politicians. The vote, however, was cause for a serious, even somber, mood among Germans who were choosing a new government at a moment when many fundamental challenges lie ahead. 

The election’s initial results indicate that Germany’s 10th postwar chancellor will be, as expected, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz. On the cusp of achieving his lifelong dream of running Germany, he must now negotiate with at least one other party to form a stable coalition that can withstand those challenges: a limping economy, the war in Ukraine, economic and security threats from the United States and Russia, and demands for more European leadership from Berlin.

Forging a sustainable coalition to tackle these problems will be difficult. Merz has pledged that he will not work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) although it will be the second-largest party in the Bundestag. That leaves him with the third-place SPD. But another partner may yet be required for a stable parliamentary majority. Enter the Greens. The conundrum is that this configuration would include two of the three parties in the outgoing coalition, one that developed a reputation for instability that eventually led to its dissolution. Recent history in this case does not bode well for the near future.

Even the return of a Grand Coalition, the CDU-SPD fusion that ruled Germany for much of the last two decades (with the CDU’s sister Christian Socialist Union), however, may not offer the stability that many Germans, and Europeans, are desperate to see. The two parties would have only a slight, perhaps razor-thin, parliamentary majority that would offer little guarantee of durability. The situation would be further compounded by an SPD whose performance was described by one party official as “catastrophic”. The result was indeed the SPD’s poorest showing in postwar Germany and could herald internal party reckoning and disunity. 

Voter turnout was the highest since reunification, a sign that Germans have expectations they want met. When it comes to government stability, they may well be disappointed. If that happens, even brighter days may lie ahead for fringe parties, above all the AfD.