Moldova’s Democratic Transformation Hangs on Two Presidential Elections

Central and Eastern European Perspectives on the U.S. Election

The Trump presidency has coincided with turmoil and power struggles in Moldova. The reformist government that came in in 2019 only lasted five months in power, and was succeeded by one made up of the Socialist Party and the Democratic Party associated with Vladimir Plahotniuc, the country's richest oligarch and most powerful figure in the country until last year. Then the coronavirus pandemic hit hard a society with growing inequalities. Moldova is in economic freefall, with the Ministry of Economy declaring the greatest GDP drop in the last 20 years.

Plahotniuc, who was linked to the “theft of the century”—the disappearance of $1 billion from Moldovan banks in 2014—was forced to leave the country in June 2019, in part under diplomatic pressure from the United States. It was later revealed that he had fled there. In January, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the imposition of visa bans on Plahotniuc and his family. The Moldovan authorities initiated an extradition procedure in June, but recently the U.S. government confirmed that he had left the country in August.

All of this has exacerbated the demoralization of Moldovan society. The democratic ideal has been compromised by politicians who under the shield of “Western values” have abused power and mimed cooperation with international parties.

In its own presidential election, Moldova faces a geopolitical dilemma and is debating the merits of the “turbulent” Western model versus Eastern “stability.” President Igor Dodon is playing this card by declaring Russia the country’s main strategic partner, and promising Eurasian integration with minimum concern about the rule of law and democracy. Former prime minister Maia Sandu is campaigning on greater Euro-Atlantic alignment with a strong focus on the rule of law and eliminating corruption.

A critical pathway for development

The result of the U.S. presidential election will be crucial for the liberal democratic paradigm and the neoliberal economic paradigm founded on the Washington consensus. Both have lost international legitimacy and will take different turns depending on who is in the White House—and both matter for the path Moldova’s development will follow.

In a second Trump term, the United States would continue to focus on domestic affairs, leaving a power vacuum globally. During Trump’s presidency, the United States has neglected the long, thankless slog of safeguarding democracy and human rights as well as basic peacekeeping. In this context, Moldova will continue to oscillate between West and East.

In the long run, the United States’ absence from the global stage and its internal political problems do not sustain the legitimacy of the democratic model. For a country like Moldova, this leaves more room for autocracy, with Putin-like leaders gaining more influence. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has decreased funding for assisting civil society in Moldova.

Trump’s reelection would also make things easier for those actors who meddle in “frozen” conflicts—as now in the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. With Russian troops in Transnistria, Moldova is exposed to a high risk of turbulence, and in a crisis it would not easily secure U.S. mediation under a Trump administration. And if Trump were to continue an America First economic policy, that would also leave Moldova with limited assistance for recovery from its ongoing economic wreckage.

A Biden presidency, on the other hand, would bring clear U.S. engagement on international security, democracy, peacebuilding, and development. In the event of conflict escalation in the region, Moldova could rely on involvement and active mediation from the United States. Moreover, international defense assistance would be increasingly sustained, based on bilateral support in getting closer to Euro-Atlantic security standards and institutions.

But the extent to which relations would be strengthened under a Biden administration is also conditional on the result of Moldova’s election, which will go to a second round later this month. If Dodon is reelected, a Biden administration would be expected to monitor democracy and rule of law in the country, and to speak out when they come under threat. The United States could also set clear conditions for cooperation. Over the years Washington has meaningfully contributed to the reform of a justice sector that has chronically suffered from political interference. This would continue under a Biden administration since he has always emphasized justice matters, including in foreign affairs.

Overall, a Biden presidency would restore the United States to the position of leadership of the liberal democratic world and of standard-setter for developing countries. However, as more Moldovans fall into poverty, much needed financial help for economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis would be at risk if the Biden administration were to pursue a neoliberal assistance policy that focuses narrowly on economic growth, rather than on wider human development, including areas such as health and welfare.

This is part of our series on the policy implications of the 2020 U.S. elections for U.S. allies—you’ll find the rest of the series HERE.