Italy Should Play a Greater Role in NATO. Here’s Why.
A Window of Opportunity
The recent Israel-Hamas conflict underscores the complexities of managing NATO's southern flank. Italy, with its advantageous location and political positioning, is well suited to take a leadership role in the Mediterranean and Africa. It already enjoys strong partnerships with Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries through energy and development partners, and its recently launched Mattei Plan aims to increase Rome’s profile in the region.
Italy's influence within NATO will be further bolstered when Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Rome’s current chief of defense, takes over as chair of the NATO Military Committee in January 2025. The country’s hosting of US bases and key NATO posts such as Joint Force Command-Naples presents a prime opportunity for Rome to amplify its voice in NATO's policy discussions. This is particularly significant as NATO's focus increasingly shifts to the east and north.
The time to act is now, especially as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s commitment to NATO enjoys widespread support both at home and abroad.
Foreign Policy Alignments
Italy's foreign policy now extends beyond the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific, aligning with NATO’s global approach. NATO’s decision to label China a “systemic challenge” at the 2022 Brussels Summit should also be seen as playing a role in Italy's decision to abandon China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2023. Rome has stepped up its engagement in Asia by enhancing strategic partnerships with Japan and India, and by publishing and implementing its Indo-Pacific guidelines.
The Mattei Plan, a cornerstone of Meloni's foreign policy, embodies the country’s ambition to become NATO's “Mediterranean Hub”. Meloni's government has been proactive in promoting the plan, aiming to fortify energy partnerships with regional players such as Algeria, Libya, and Qatar, and to position Italy as a crucial link in transatlantic collaborations. These ties make Italy a bridge to the Euro-Atlantic partnerships, able to manage regional tensions and push NATO’s agenda on key issues such as terrorism and energy security.
Meloni’s steadfast support for Ukraine and the announcement of military modernization plans have made Italy a reliable partner in the eyes of Washington and its NATO allies. Italy's role, as the government’s decision to renew assistance to Kyiv through 2025highlights, is increasingly vital in a context in which support for Ukraine is at risk.
What Next?
To achieve a more influential role within NATO, Italy must take some concrete steps.
The implementation of the Mattei Plan is a top priority for Italy. Officially approved on November 3rd, the plan seeks to make Italy the European energy hub in the Mediterranean and enhance cooperation with African countries on equal terms. Italy should now move vigorously to launch concrete initiatives supporting economic development in Africa, as Meloni has publicly discussed and the African countries expect. The plan's success requires increased financing and diplomatic commitment from Italy, which should be prepared to announce partnerships at the 2024 meeting of the Rome Mediterranean Dialogue.
Implementing military modernization is another imperative for Rome. The Italian Ministry of Defense's plan for 2023–25, under the direction of Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, focuses on smart investments and cutting-edge technologies to strengthen Italy’s military. Rome should deepen this strategy going forward, as it enables more efficient defense output.
This plan is significant in the context of the upcoming 2024 US elections, as the extent of US support to Europe could depend on NATO countries’ self-defense capabilities. Establishing partnerships with allies would bolster the European defense industry and enhance NATO's overall readiness through interoperability. Italy must take advantage of its connections to the business community to drive joint defense projects with European partners. To do so, Rome should build on existing joint ventures such as Leonardo’s collaboration with Franco-German KMW+Nexter Defense Systems on tank development and Fincantieri’s partnership with France’s Naval Group under the Naviris joint venture.
Coordinating with France will be a complex yet vital element of Italy’s strategy. The Quirinal Treaty, in effect since February 2023, offers a bilateral platform for coordination, especially for NATO’s southern flank. Leveraging its network of North African partnerships and the Mattei Plan, Italy could help bridge the gap created by France’s departure from the Sahel. The Quirinal Treaty can also serve as a mechanism for ironing out potential disagreements and coordinating efforts in key areas such as defense industrial cooperation, energy, and migration.
Ensuring sustainable funding for military spending will be a significant challenge. Italy currently spends 1.46% of its GDP on defense, 24th among NATO members, with the intention of reaching the alliance’s 2% goal by 2028. However, doubts remain about achieving this target. The prospects of a NATO-skeptic US presidency are real, and Italy could struggle should it not be able to fulfil the promises it has made on defense spending. Italy’s leadership should take advantage of the current geopolitical situation to stress the benefits that defense spending would bring to the to Italy’s industry, competitiveness, and overall security.
The window of opportunity created by these foreign policy and political synergies will not last forever. Italian policymakers should act boldly and in concert with NATO Allies to face these turbulent times and prepare for the next challenges.