It Feels Different From 2020, When Joe Biden Ran

This article originally appeared in Der Tagesspiegel.

It is a glorious Indian summer in New York’s Hudson Valley. Red, yellow, and orange leaves shimmer in the warm sun and scattered lakes along windy roads are smooth and calm. Pumpkins adorn doorways along with Halloween spiderwebs and skeletons.

In addition to the familiar telltale signs of fall, this time my visit back home coincides with a tight and an unusually suspenseful election year. It feels different because 2024 portends more change than four years ago when it was about a desire for normalcy in the throes of a global pandemic. After all, President Biden even declared his candidacy as interregnum or a bridge to the next generation of leadership. Elections are always about change, but the vote on November 5 undoubtedly will usher in a new chapter in the American experiment.

This year, the number of political signs dotting green lawns is noticeable, and even more startling is to see Trump/Vance placards. That was not the case in the last two presidential election cycles. There appears to be fewer “shy Trump voters” than before.    

I grew up in a classic swing district (regardless of redrawing district lines), one hour north of Manhattan. My neighborhood has had congressional representatives from both parties. They have ranged from a musician to an ophthalmologist. Today, the district is nearly 65% white, with a growing Hispanic population. African Americans and Asians make up less than 15%. The median income is higher than the national average, but within the radius of two miles from where my parents live you can find stately homes with long driveways and town houses for working class families.

Vice President Harris should win the district, but the seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs and could prove crucial for determining the majority in the lower chamber of Congress. The Republican incumbent, Mike Lawler, who won his seat two years ago by less than one percentage point, and his challenger, Mondaire Jones, a former member of Congress, are neck and neck in the polls. 

Our House race mirrors the presidential election, which also is in a dead heat. This year an enormous amount of money is going into the House race since the Republicans have only a handful of seats for their current majority. Jones has raised more than $8 million, and Lawler has received backing from Elon Musk’s political action committee. The difference is that, although they support different candidates for president, Lawler and Jones are centrist. They may paint each other as radical, but Lawler and Jones are rare moderates in today’s political environment. They are running in one of the few competitive congressional seats left on an electoral map that has undergone years of gerrymandering.

The periodic flipping of our district over the years has not caused significant change in our area of New York. For the most part, our representatives have strived to address issues, such as lowering taxes and creating jobs. appealing to the middle of the electorate. If Rep. Lawler is reelected, there will not be a sudden emergence of MAGA hats at the grocery store. I expect that the campaign signs will disappear from yards after November 5, and the Halloween decorations will make way for Thanksgiving platters and Christmas lighting.

The vote for the top of the ticket will naturally alter the course of the United States. Home will still be home, but my country will be different no matter who wins the White House. When I am back again, I wonder if MAGA will have firmly taken root in our body politic or whether we will have crossed that bridge to elect America’s first female president.