Extremely Worrying

For sure, the strength of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), an upstart party on the left, in Saxony and Thuringia stands out compared to their popularity in other German regions. But the issues top of mind for voters there and the difficulties ahead in cobbling together governing coalitions reflect an unsettled national electorate. The discontent and political fragmentation do not bode well for Germany’s federal election next year.

More than 30 years after unification, continuing divisions in politics and social attitudes between western and eastern Germany remain prevalent. The two states’ election results widen the gap. But they will also impact national political debates, especially on issues such as migration and support for Ukraine.

With nearly a third of the vote (according to preliminary results) in Saxony and Thuringia, the anti-immigrant AfD has undoubtedly found a stronghold in eastern Germany. On the opposite end of the political spectrum (but interestingly in lockstep on immigration and Ukraine), the BSW, whose leader Sahra Wagenknecht was a member of the East German communist party, also fared well with 12 % and nearly 16%, respectively.

Their formidable positions reflect weaker political party affiliations in eastern Germany. The long-term impacts of economic transformation also provide fertile ground for the two anti-establishment blocs.

Saxony and Thuringia represent less than 10% of the German population, but their electoral choices create problems for Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a time when his coalition is deeply unpopular. The “traffic light” coalition in Berlin, comprising Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP) was, as expected, punished severely at the polls. The SPD made it back into both state legislatures, albeit with paltry results in both states below 10%. The Greens just barely exceeded the 5% threshold to remain in Saxony’s parliament but failed to do the same in Thuringia. The FDP came up empty.

The AfD and BSW’s hardline stance on immigration is a direct challenge to the coalition, which is still navigating policies that date back to former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her “Wir schaffen das”, or “We can do it”, slogan heralded the arrival of more than 1 million refugees in Germany less than a decade ago. The legacy of that is now sharpening the debate over asylum and deportation laws. The recent killing of three people at a festival in the western German town of Solingen, an act for which the Islamic State group has claimed responsibility, has added to the urgency. The alleged perpetrator is a Syrian refugee whose asylum application had been rejected, and the case has already prompted all mainstream parties to adopt a stricter position on irregular immigration.

The mood among voters in eastern Germany is also shaped by unease over Berlin’s support for Ukraine and distancing from Russia. Scholz’s announcement earlier this summer of the stationing of long-range US missiles in Germany did not endear him to the many voters in Saxony and Thuringia who are sympathetic toward Moscow. According to forsa, a pollster, a majority of AfD and BSW voters would like to reduce support for Ukraine. They also suspect the influence of the United States and believe its perceived domination of German foreign policy leads Berlin astray.

Germany’s role as the second-largest contributor to Ukraine has earned praise within Europe and across the Atlantic, but fears that the conflict in Ukraine will escalate is palpable in Saxony and Thuringia (and even nationwide). This, too, affected voters’ choices.

Whatever coalitions emerge in Saxony and Thuringia, the strength of the fringe parties will be felt. All other parties have ruled out governing with the AfD, which makes arrangements with the BSW more likely. 

But a firewall will not dampen the AfD as a major regional force. Nor will it prevent the party from gaining seats in the Bundestag in 2025. The BSW will also find entry then into the national parliament. In such a fragmented political environment, more challenges to the eroding abilities of the mainstream parties to establish sustainable governing majorities await.