Engaging Beijing for Peace: Strategies for Ukraine

Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China, marking his first trip to Beijing since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The visit, made upon the invitation of his counterpart, Wang Yi, will focus on ways to end Russian aggression and explore China’s potential role in achieving a stable and just peace. Although China is unlikely to take any actions that would weaken Russia against NATO and the United States, making a fair peace for Ukraine improbable, Kyiv cannot afford to exclude China from a potential peace process. Despite numerous efforts by Ukrainian and European leaders to bring China to the June 2024 Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland, Beijing decided to prioritize its own six-point peace plan and declined the invitation. During the state visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to China in July, President Xi Jinping called on the international community to facilitate direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. However, China itself has not offered any concrete steps to cool down the situation in line with its three principles of “no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting, and no fanning of the flames by any party”.

Ukraine is now facing three key challenges regarding China's engagement in the peacebuilding process:

• China's View of the War in Ukraine: Beijing frames the conflict as a geopolitical struggle involving Western interference and avoids direct condemnation of Russia. China's position emphasizes its "neutrality" on the grounds that it is not a "related party on the crisis of Ukraine", but at the same time, it strengthens its relations with Russia. Intellectuals in China view Ukraine as a pawn exploited by Western powers, and some writers have even claimed that the United States is taking advantage of Ukraine under the guise of a shared fight for freedom and democracy, with Kyiv naively falling for Washington’s overtures.

• China-Russia Alliance: The deepening China-Russia "no-limits partnership" has led to significant economic and military collaboration, with China providing an economic lifeline to Russia by purchasing half of its oil and petroleum exports and supplying more than 90% of its microelectronics imports, thereby bolstering Russia's military capabilities. Additionally, China supports Russia through hybrid operations and increased military cooperation, helping Moscow circumvent Western sanctions, reduce diplomatic isolation, and promote its narrative in the Global South. Beijing continues to exploit Russia’s economic vulnerabilities while reinforcing its strategic partnership with Moscow to counter US influence and challenge the global order. 

• China-US Rivalry: China's rivalry with the United States extends beyond the current war and reflects a broader competition for global influence. President Xi Jinping's ambition is to reshape the international system at its core. This strategy is rooted in projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, both of which aim to establish an order centered on Beijing's principles of sovereignty and state-led development. Experts suggest there is little prospect of improving US-China ties but also share a belief that time is on China’s side—and that the United States does not necessarily have as many friends as it assumes it does in the escalating rivalry. 

While Ukraine may not address these challenges in the short term, it is crucial for Kyiv to persist in diplomatic efforts to involve China in any peace process, despite potential risks, to set the stage for future negotiations.

• Encourage China’s Role as a Mediator: Drawing on Beijing’s desire to play a prominent role in global diplomacy, Ukraine should actively encourage China to get involved in mediation of the conflict while upholding the principles of Ukraine's Peace Formula. Ukraine should strategically invoke the 2013 China-Ukraine Security Treaty to remind Beijing of its commitment to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and provide security assurances in the event of nuclear threats. At the same time, Ukraine and its allies should create conditions for China’s mediation role in what is expected to be a complex multiparty negotiation process.

  • Potential risks: China's mediation approach, characterized by high-profile diplomatic gestures with little specific follow-up and a "pro-Russian neutrality", risks undermining Beijing’s credibility as a neutral broker, given its significant interactions with Russia compared to its limited engagement with Ukraine. Additionally, it is unlikely that China will sit on the same side of the table as Western countries, making the creation of the right negotiation framework essential.

• Leverage China’s Peace Plan: Both China’s original 12-point peace statement and the joint Brazil-China six-point proposal for peace negotiations align with some aspects of Ukraine's peace formula and the communiqué signed by more than 80 countries during the Ukraine Peace Summit in June 2024. Specifically, all these documents emphasize the necessity of upholding international law, respecting sovereignty, ceasing hostilities, resuming dialogue and negotiations, ensuring humanitarian aid, protecting civilians and POWs, preventing the use of nuclear and mass destruction weapons, and stabilizing global food and energy security. Ukraine can work with China to refine this plan to better align it with Ukraine’s specific demands and ensure fair negotiations that emphasize China's professed values​. This proactive engagement from Ukraine could also indicate its sovereignty in decision-making to counter Beijing’s view of the country as “a mere pawn“ of the West. 

  • Potential risks: While China may engage in discussions about the peace plan, Beijing has so far been reluctant to offer any concrete actions to execute the plan, raising doubts about its commitment to meaningful implementation. Beijing may well leverage its mediator role and peace plan to advance its own geopolitical interests, potentially attempting to pressure Ukraine into concessions that compromise its sovereignty.

• Further Engage Third Parties in Peace Process: Ukraine should continue to work with key allies such as the EU, the United States, Japan, and Singapore while also reaching out to “Global South” nations such as Indonesia that have shown some initiative in peace efforts. Encouraging a broad coalition, including ASEAN countries, can increase diplomatic pressure on China to play a more active role in the peace process. Additionally, fostering wider international support may also help in aligning global perspectives and garnering broader backing for UN accountability mechanisms, thus strengthening Ukraine's position in negotiations. 

  • Potential risks: Although the EU has some influence over China through trade, it faces challenges due to a lack of unity among its member states on their approach to Beijing. Additionally, some non-aligned countries might be hesitant to participate in the peace process due to their own geopolitical concerns and relationships with China.

China has the potential to play one of the key roles in ending the war on European soil. Despite the low probability of China’s immediate involvement in the peacebuilding process, Ukraine should continue diplomatic efforts, as maintaining dialogue and emphasizing shared interests such as nuclear safety can still be a starting point for any potential engagement. The West must further support Ukraine to create favorable conditions on the battlefield and ensure Kyiv a strong position in any future negotiations.