The Dawn of Pivotal Powers in Artificial Intelligence

This is a chapter from "Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence".

A universal force multiplier, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to be among the elements to influence the geopolitical balance of power in a newly emerging global order. The United States and China have already placed the technology front and center among their national priorities. But AI’s evolution and governance is less likely than those of other technological breakthroughs to rest solely on the decisions of great powers. Certain middle powers also seek to influence the rules. They see AI as an opportunity to boost their economic, military, political, and socio-cultural competitiveness, and their prestige on the world stage. Further, AI is a unique emerging technology that relies on a complex and diverse supply chain that middle powers can leverage geopolitically. As a result, a new category of pivotal powers in the international order is emerging, one that is investing in AI. India and Saudi Arabia are among the key cases. Ranked, respectively, 10th and 14th globally in terms of overall AI capacity (see graphic below), both countries are looking to AI to advance their strategic interests and their regional and global leadership positions.