Czechia Can Live With Harris Continuity or “Trump Therapy”

The US presidential election is the top geopolitical event of the year for Czechia. When it comes to the foreign and security policy agenda, no other development is a match for a country so keen on promoting transatlantic cooperation. And here the stakes are high given the developments in the war in Ukraine, where Russia has been making territorial gains in recent weeks.

At the beginning of the presidential campaign, most Czech observers of US politics were frustrated that Americans had to choose between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They saw both as ageing, known quantities offering little novelty to Washington’s allies. Thus, many were happy with the change of candidate on the Democratic side to Kamala Harris, whom they see as a more different option and an escape from the “lesser evil” choice for the US electorate. 

However, from the perspective of foreign and security policy, there are many question marks concerning both candidates. Harris’s limited record and the lack of clarity as to who would constitute her team in these matters are considered a problem. Czech observers also wonder how many members of Biden’s cabinet would sit in hers too. Prague has seen the current administration as often too weak to act, not only against Russia but also to confront other authoritarian powers such as China and Iran. 

By contrast, Czechia probably has too much information about Trump for its liking, remembering some of his erratic behavior on Russia, North Korea, and NATO during his presidency, not to mention his record in domestic politics. On the other hand, under the Trump administration, the United States paid a lot of attention to Central and Eastern Europe, even if often over the heads of the rest of the continent. 

In that context, Czechia’s government is somewhat split on which candidate it would like to see win but keen on working with whoever does. The same goes for President Petr Pavel. Over the last several months, he and some government representatives have done as much outreach as possible to key figures in the Republican Party to establish ties in case of a Trump victory.

To Czechia’s advantage, it clearly aligns itself with important US interests on most fronts, including by being a reliable ally to Israel, by strongly criticizing China and supporting Taiwan, and by doing everything possible to support Ukraine. The country is also trying to lead Europe toward taking more responsibility in security. This was seen in the common initiative for ammunition purchases that has delivered hundreds of thousands of artillery shells for Ukraine’s defense while the country was waiting for the US package of financial support and military equipment that was approved earlier this year. Crucially, Czechia is ready to be an ally in confronting China’s influence and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, making use of all its assets in the region. This could be key especially if there is a new Trump administration.

At first sight, it seems things would be easier for Prague with Harris in the White House.

One thing is clear for Czechia: whoever is elected president needs to be committed to Europe and the transatlantic partnership. The nightmare scenario for the country would be polarization, division, and confrontation in the transatlantic community, including on energy, trade, and security—three key elements for Czechia. This would threaten Czech interests, considering Russia’s aggression toward not only Ukraine but also the rest of a region that faces the immediate consequences of the war.

At first sight, it seems things would be easier for Prague with Harris in the White House. From an initial analysis of her priorities and based on the presence of some people in her campaign team, she would represent continuity more than Trump, even if with some changes to the current US policy. This would be significant for Czechia as a country with a strong multilateralist mindset at a time when the world order is being challenged by the erosion of global institutions and attempts to undermine the status quo.

However, many people in Czechia’s security establishment have started speaking about the possible benefits for Europe of a “Trump therapy”. In their view, a more assertive tone from Washington in discussions with the EU could finally help European countries wake up to the existing challenges and to put their house in order. This would apply to the internal reform agenda in the EU, to necessary military investments to boost the continent’s defense, and to establishing a clearer line in trade and external partnerships, where the EU has been backtracking on its global agenda.  

In any case, the coming US presidential election has already had consequences, as seen in the EU’s agenda to become more self-sufficient in some of the abovementioned areas. Czechia sees positively the recent boost in the EU’s security and defense agenda with the newly created European commissioner for defense and the appointment of Lithuania’s former prime minister Andrius Kubilius.

Regardless of who wins the election, even more is needed from Europe, including in terms of investing in the EU’s means to be a good ally to the United States. There also needs to be reciprocity from Washington, especially when it comes to regions of common interest, such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Balkans, where competition and conflicts with Europe emerged during the first Trump presidency. Czechia and Europe cannot afford a repeat of this, especially if Trump wins, in the context of the intensified global power confrontation, which should bring the two sides of the Atlantic closer.

Pavel Havlicek is a ReThink.CEE Fellow 2019 of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

This article is part of series in which GMF experts from Central and Eastern Europe set out the implications of a Harris or Trump win in the US presidential election for the countries in the region.