Bulgaria’s Quest for a Stable Government Goes On

Given the elections on October 27 in Bulgaria were the seventh in three years, the turnout was surprisingly high at 38%. The new parliament will be highly fragmented with eight parties in it. Former prime minister Boyko Borisov’s Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) came first with 26.4% of the votes and will have 69 seats. It was followed by the progressive We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition (14.2%, 37 seats), the far-right Revival (13.4%, 35 seats), and the DPS–New Beginning party (11.2%, 30 seats).

Allegations of vote-buying raise concerns about the legitimacy of the elections. Doubts center on DPS–New Beginning led by Delyan Peevski, who is sanctioned under the US Magnitsky Act. A month before the elections, Interior Minister Atanas Ilkov reported more than 200 complaints of vote-buying but did not name publicly the parties involved. After the vote, Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev said that it is “an illusion that there were no bought votes” but that the caretaker government had done its job.

The elections produced two notable developments. 

First, the recent split in two of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) demonstrated the divided influence of two politicians, Peevski and Ahmed Dogan, over Bulgarian Turk voters. DPS–New Beginning won most of their votes in Bulgaria whereas Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) received three times more of their votes in Turkey. 

From the 1990s until it split just before the elections, the DPS was a kingmaker in coalition politics, aligning with different parties to form majorities and to help many governments survive. Despite the suspicion that Peevski’s DPS–New beginning has achieved its results by fraud, it is showing the ambition to play the kingmaker again.  

Second is the greater presence of populist conservative parties in the new parliament, in particular Revival. The newly formedMorality, Unity, Honor (MECH) narrowly cleared the 4% vote threshold and will have 12 seats. Its leader describes it as the first “truly pro-Bulgarian party”. With 18 seats, There Is Such People (ITN) will also have a say in coalition negotiations. 

It is still unclear to what extent these voices will be able to shape political decisions in the next months. In the previous parliament, Revival introduced a “foreign agents” law targeting individuals and organizations that receive funding from abroad, which failed to garner sufficient support. The parliament later adopted an anti-LGBTQ+ amendment to the education law that Revival introduced. The amendment was supported by GERB and other parties that portray themselves as Euro-Atlantic. 

GERB has now come first in the last four elections, but most other parties remain reluctant to cooperate with it.

The repeated elections have left Bulgaria in political stagnation. The lack of trust and strong divisions among parties have prevented them from producing a stable government in the past years. GERB has now come first in the last four elections, but most other parties remain reluctant to cooperate with it. These dynamics once again create challenges to achieving lasting governance stability. 

The most likely, but still very uncertain, option is a coalition between GERB and PP-DB. GERB and one part of the PP-DB coalition belong to the European People’s Party (EPP) family at the EU level, and they express similar positions on Euro-Atlantic values. But they differ greatly on topics such as the rule of law and the need for judicial reform. In the past, this has been a key challenge for them to find a resilient formula to govern together. 

Even if GERB and PP-DB reach an agreement on common policies, they would need five additional seats to secure a majority of 121. The question is which party could be the third one in a coalition. So far, there is none that both want to cooperate with, and whom each excludes narrows their options. GERB has ruled out any partnership with Revival, effectively eliminating the latter from coalition negotiations. PP-DB has called for isolating DPS–New Beginning, and cooperation with Peevski’s party could easily derail any progressive coalition agenda. This puts pressure on GERB and PP-DB to find a workable arrangement and to rely on at least one of the other parties—or else risk protracted negotiations and deadlock.

The international context will also play a role. GERB feels empowered by the backing it got from the EPP during the previous elections campaign in June. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who comes from the EPP, traveled to Bulgaria to support the party. This support raises expectations that GERB will seek to form a stable, pro-EU government, ideally in coalition with PP-DB. On the other hand, GERB knows this would come with PP-DB conditions related to the rule of law and reforms. The presidential election in the United States is also a factor. A Kamala Harris administration could mean more pressure on Bulgaria to keep to a pro-West course, commit to reforms, and take more actions to counter Russian influence. 

Bulgaria’s latest elections have reinforced the political gridlock. Even if GERB and PP-DB could collaborate, having a third partner in the government will require them to make costly compromises. After seven elections in quick succession, domestic and international pressure to have a reform-oriented government may be insufficient if the main parties fail to bridge their ideological divide. And the vicious circle of short-lived governments will keep undermining public trust and stability.