Another Pro-Russia Presidential Choice in Croatia?

The election to Croatia’s mostly ceremonial presidency on December 29 will close the Adriatic country’s own a “super election year”. President Zoran Milanović of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), in office since 2020, is running for a second term and looks likely to win as voters seem in a mood to punish the governing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

Following the April 2024 parliamentary elections, the center-right HDZ under Prime Minister Andrej Plenković managed to remain in power, albeit in a coalition with the right-wing Homeland Movement. The European Parliament Elections in June 2024 also yielded a HDZ victory.

Since gaining independence in 1991, the HDZ has mostly held political power. Its continued popularity is largely attributed to its role in transitioning the country toward democracy following the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Over the years, the party has shaped national institutions and policies, particularly with its pro-EU, pro-NATO, and pro-Ukraine positions.

However, in recent years the HDZ has faced numerous corruption allegations and experienced frequent ministerial changes, particularly under Plenković since 2016. Transparency International ranks Croatia the fifth-most corrupt country in the EU, following Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The most recent scandal involves the arrest of Minister of Health Vili Beroš in November, after the European Public Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation against him on suspicion of corruption.  

Milanović vs. HDZ

Milanović is supported by the SDP—Croatia’s other main force—and its allies, and he is opposed by Dragan Primorac of the HDZ with the support of its allied smaller parties.

Recent polls suggest the election could be a protest vote against the HDZ’s corruption scandals and coalition with right-wingers in order to hold on to power. In a November poll, Milanović led Primorac by 35.1% to 24.5%. Voter turnout is expected to be around 80%. If no candidate wins an absolute majority in this first round, a second round will be held on January 12.

Milanović is pro-Russia and is critical of sanctions against Moscow. He does not support the HDZ government’s firm backing of Ukraine, including the involvement of Croatian troops in the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine mission and the signing of an agreement on long-term cooperation and support in October.

Although Croatia’s president has few powers and little influence on foreign and security policy, Milanović’s reelection would continue the trend of voters in Central and Eastern European choosing pro-Russia leaders. In this, he would join President Rumen Radev in Bulgaria (reelected in 2021), Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Hungary and President Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia (both reelected in 2022), Prime Minister Robert Fico in Slovakia (elected in 2023), and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski in North Macedonia (elected in 2024).