All Politics is Local, National, and Global: What the Brandenburg Regional Election Means for Germany
The results of the Brandenburg regional election illustrate that politics is both local and national—with some good news and some bad news for Germany.
The good news for the Social Democrats is that the current premier of the state of Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke, managed to win the election over the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a very close race. His winning two terms in office has had much to do with his popularity and little to do with the favorability of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has been polling at historically low levels. The fact that Woidke chose not to campaign with Chancellor Olaf Scholz only underlined the unpopularity of the latter’s governing coalition in Berlin. Woidke attracted many voters from all parties by virtue of his own likeability.
At the moment, it appears that the SPD and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) may be able to form a state coalition government, but only with the absolute minimum number of seats needed to do so. And even this remains uncertain.
The bad news is that the right-wing AfD made a strong showing in a third straight regional election, and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) won more votes than the conservative CDU. The AfD and BSW combined may have as many as 44 of the 88 seats in the regional parliament. The success of these two fringe parties was not good news for Friedrich Merz, who will be the CDU candidate running against Olaf Scholz in next year’s national elections. In addition, the Greens fell short of the minimum necessary for reelection to the state parliament, which prevents the party from continuing in the current coalition with the SPD and the CDU in the next state government in Brandenburg. The Greens’ shortfall also underlines the problems the party is having at the national level. Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) also failed to gain the minimum support required in Brandenburg. Scholz’s national coalition with the Greens and the FDP has been losing traction during the past year amid tensions over—among other issues—immigration policies and support for Ukraine. And there have been serious arguments over budgetary policies.
All three regional elections in eastern Germany during the past two months have highlighted the increase in support for both the AfD and the BSW throughout the country, raising concerns about the stability of the government and threats to democracy from both ends of the political spectrum. The current coalition in Berlin will need to do a better job of addressing the sources of dissatisfaction underlying these trends. The next electoral test will come with the national elections in late September 2025. Whoever is chancellor at that time—whichever governing coalition emerges—will face some of the same challenges that are on the agenda today as well as new ones including a new president in Washington, DC. Amid all these concerns, whoever can best earn the trust and confidence of the voters will be elected. Dietmar Woidke just illustrated that one way of doing this begins with the understanding that all politics is a complicated mix of local, national, and even global issues.