Noah Barkin

“ “It’s a perilous time for Europe, which faces a triple threat from China, from the possible return of Donald Trump, and from within, as voters across the bloc tilt to the far right, making political consensus more challenging,” said Noah Barkin, Europe-China expert at the German Marshall Fund and Rhodium Group. ”

“ Beijing is closely watching how far-right parties perform in particular: A strong showing in the EU, followed by elections in three German states later this year, could “create an impression of political disarray,” a German Marshall Fund fellow wrote, which could slow any legislation aimed at curbing China’s ambitions. ”

“ THINK TANKERS TAKE: “The strategy sends a clear message that Germany’s approach to China has changed. China is now seen as more of a challenge and a threat than as an opportunity,” Noah Barkin, who focuses on China-EU relations at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Berlin Bulletin. He added: “The fact that the government has spelled this out in writing is important for the debate in Europe given the mixed signals that have been coming from Berlin.”

But there are still open questions: The key issue is “implementation,” Barkin said. “The government is determined to reduce its dependencies on China and diversify to other markets. But will the German companies that are heavily dependent on China pay attention to this message?” ”

“ The days of win-win EU-China meetings, where the differences are papered over, and half-baked agreements are held up as deliverables, are long gone. China is adjusting to a new reality in which the EU is raising all the contentious issues in the relationship every time they meet. It would prefer to avoid this. ”

“ The days of win-win EU-China meetings, where the differences are papered over and half-baked agreements are held up as deliverables, are long gone. China is adjusting to a new reality in which the EU is raising all the contentious issues in the relationship every time they meet. It would prefer to avoid this. ”

“ The economic upheaval triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to reinforce the reluctance of some capitals to push back too hard against Beijing. But there is no going back to the old days. ”

“ Brussels is betting that Xi will not want to alienate the EU, particularly at a sensitive time. ”

“ There are risks to Scholz on the left and right. But he’s created facts on the ground now, and there will be huge pressure to support him. ”

“ It is mistaken to think that Europe can play the role of mediator in the US-China conflict. Neither the US nor China has any appetite for this. And European member states are too divided on where they stand in this superpower standoff. ”

“ The EU is right to focus on Africa after many years of expanding Chinese influence on the continent. But it will take more than feel-good pledges to make a difference. ”

“ If European companies pull out of Lithuania because of this Chinese coercion, then Beijing will have won and the lesson it will draw from this is that it can pressure European countries to tow its red lines. ”

“ The language on China is the strongest ever to appear in a German coalition agreement, reflecting growing concerns about the direction of China under Xi Jinping. The mentions of issues considered to be 'red lines' by the ruling Chinese Communist Party shows a readiness to speak more openly about differences with Beijing. ”

“ Lithuania’s stance, and China’s response to it, has helped force this issue onto the European agenda. There is still a reluctance to provoke Beijing on one of the reddest of its red lines. But there is also a realisation that Europe cannot leave Lithuania out there, blowing in the wind. And there is a growing conviction that Europe cannot allow Beijing to define what its ‘One China’ policy looks like. ”

“ The Commission seems to be missing someone who can cut through the Brussels turf wars and produce a strategic document that isn't just a compilation of tired EU buzzwords. It shows that there is still a deep-seated institutional reluctance to tackle the challenges posed by China head on. ”

“ At the same time as the EU is trumpeting a new geostrategic approach to connectivity, it is co-financing a major study with China of rail routes that appear tailor made for Beijing and its Belt and Road ambitions. ”

“ Throughout the campaign, Laschet has reduced the debate over China policy to a simplistic choice between pursuing robust economic ties or speaking out on human rights and seeing those ties suffer. This is precisely how Beijing would like Germany and other countries to define their choice.

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“ The world outside of Germany does not exist in this election. ”

“ China had been Merkel’s 'biggest blind spot.' This is not because she failed to see the shift in China’s trajectory under Xi Jinping. ”

“ The Shanghai port visit was a late addition to the deployment in order to appease doves in Berlin who worried it would be overly provocative towards China. ”