Russia's Southern Game: NATO's Southern Flank after the Ukraine Invasion

Since its annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has significantly stepped up its presence across both the Middle East and Africa. Military interventions in Syria and Libya, close ties with regimes in Egypt and Algeria, support to military juntas in Sudan and Mali, a close security alliance with the Central African Republic, and aggressive outreach across southern Africa all speak to Russia’s systematic security engagement. Politically and economically isolated as a result of its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is set to use and expand its geopolitical capital in the south. How must Russia’s role in MENA and Africa be reassessed in the new international environment? What openings does NATO’s southern flank offer for Russia that transatlantic allies should pay attention to?