Nuclear Weaponry and China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution

Nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare and exerted a profound impact on international politics. The Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence maintains that nuclear-armed states will not attack one another because of fear of massive retaliation, or mutually assured destruction. By this logic, nuclear weapons promote stability and can prevent war.

At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”

This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China’s answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China’s approach so far?

These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania.

Episode Highlights

[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?

[04:00] China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution

[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach

[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons Strategy

[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation

[21:21] Understanding China’s No First Use Posture

[26:27] Following China’s Model

[30:42] An American Response