A Lost Election Gamble?

Germans go to the polls on February 23 to determine their 10th postwar chancellor. The election’s results are, in the main, predictable, but what follows is not. And the uncertainty rose after recent tumult in the Bundestag over a bill to tighten immigration and asylum policy.

The legislative proposal by Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the likely winners later this month, unleashed a storm of criticism that will complicate negotiations on the next coalition to lead in Berlin. Merz tried to exploit a spike in public concern about domestic security after an asylum seeker in Bavaria attacked a group of children, stabbing one and an adult passerby to death. The incident spurred him to swiftly introduce legislation to bolster border controls, a move backed by a large majority of Germans. But the initiative caught other party leaders by surprise and heightened tensions among them. Merz argued that it was necessary to act quickly but received full-throated support only from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), seen by many as a threat to German democracy. Disregarding howls of protest from across the rest of the political spectrum that passing the bill with AfD support would undermine a long-standing effort to isolate the party, the CDU leader proceeded anyway. The proposed legislation failed, and all that he seems to have won is the antagonism of all the country’s other mainstream parties. 

It was a gamble that so far has gone wrong. Merz seems to have bet that his party could gain by luring voters away from others, especially the AfD, by pushing through a policy with significant public approval. Instead, criticism continues to roll in, and polls show no appreciable change in support for the CDU or AfD. 

The post-election impact of Merz’s parliamentary maneuver will be seen in the struggle to form a coalition, an effort which will almost certainly involve negotiations with the Social Democrats or the Greens. But finding common ground with either of them on immigration policies, not to mention Germany’s considerable economic challenges, support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, or likely rising tensions with the Donald Trump administration, will be more difficult given their claims that Merz is willing to cooperate with the far right. The CDU leader has repeatedly denied this. 

Germany is increasingly facing challenges cobbling together a stable government. The collapse of the previous coalition is a sign that agreement among political parties is eroding as challenges become more pressing. 

Germans sense the uncertainty and are increasingly uncertain themselves about the parties to which they should turn. Nervousness and frustration in the public is now widespread, and the AfD has gained from this. They will not be a part of the next government, but they probably will be the largest opposition party. 

The ability of Germany’s next government to deal with the country’s major economic and social problems will determine if the mainstream, centrist parties that have led the country since World War II will continue to do so. Germany, due to its history, has thus far bucked a rightward turn across Europe. That may no longer be the case if another unstable or unsuccessful coalition in Berlin emerges from this election.