Poland’s EU Presidency: Strengthening the Union From East to West

Oscar Luigi Guccione
As Poland prepares to lead the EU, it brings unique assets: a strong transatlantic alliance, a frontline perspective on Eastern Europe, and a determination to enhance the union’s resilience.

On January 1, 2025, Poland assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, marking the start of a new Trio that includes Denmark and Cyprus. Preparations began in 2023 under the Law and Justice (PiS)-led Polish government. Now, with Donald Tusk's more pro-European government in charge, the priorities are better defined. At the heart of the agenda is one recurring theme: security.

A Transatlantic Anchor

In 2024, Tusk’s government reinforced Poland’s position as guardian of NATO’s eastern flank and a reliable EU partner. Meetings with Germany and France sought to revive dormant cooperation. Despite ideological differences with US President-elect Donald Trump, bilateral relations are expected to remain strong. Trump’s support for Poland as a defense exemplar aligns with its significant military spending and procurement of US-made weaponry. President Duda’s swift congratulations to Trump after his 2024 election victory—in contrast to his delayed acknowledgment of Biden in 2020—highlight Warsaw’s intent to stay aligned with Washington. Poland also strengthens transatlantic ties by stressing US concerns about China within the EU and securing substantial US loans for military purposes.

Advancing European Defense

Given Trump’s past unpredictability, Poland and the EU are hedging their bets. Tusk emphasizes a robust common defense strategy, including scaling up domestic production. Plans to produce artillery shells domestically address Europe’s munitions shortfall relative to Russia’s 4.5 million annual output. Deeper integration of EU military industries, including with the United Kingdom, streamlined bureaucracy, and enhanced financing are vital for European military strategic autonomy. The EU can finance this process by deepening European Investment Bank-European Defense Agency cooperation and using profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s military aid, provided sanctions remain stable and Hungary’s resistance is mitigated.

Remarkably, Warsaw was recently invited to attend the Nordic-Baltic 8 (NB8) format, which includes Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. At the meeting in Harpsund, Sweden, Tusk praised Poland and the Baltics’ “Eastern Shield” initiatives and proposed a joint mission to patrol Baltic Sea waters and protect marine infrastructure. The Baltic Sea also offers opportunities for offshore wind farm investments, which are vital for energy security.

During bilateral meetings, Tusk secured Norway’s commitment to surveil the Rzeszów-Jasionka transit hub, which is critical for delivering aid to Ukraine, and Stockholm renewed its strategic partnership with Warsaw, emphasizing defense cooperation.

From the Baltic to the West

Poland’s invitation to participate in the NB8 highlights its growing recognition as a regional leader. This platform enables Warsaw to address mutual concerns and channel discussions into influential formats such as the Weimar Triangle, fostering collaboration among Poland, Germany, and France. This convergence of regional and European dialogues gains further significance ahead of Poland’s EU presidency, offering Tusk an opportunity to redefine the EU’s approach to pressing challenges.

One example is the proposed introduction of Eurobonds to finance defense projects. Despite German skepticism, an informal consensus emerged during the November Weimar Plus meeting. Poland also joined Germany, France, Ireland, Romania, and Slovenia in advocating cohesion policy reforms to strengthen EU competitiveness. Simultaneously, Poland teamed with the Baltic states to push for using EU cohesion funds to support nations bordering Russia and Belarus, reflecting Tusk’s nuanced approach. Polish Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin will coordinate with Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius to reduce EU over-regulation, boost competitiveness, and ensure reliable weapons production forecasts.

Multifaceted Security Challenges

Poland’s 2025 presidency redefines security as a multidimensional challenge, extending beyond the military realm.

  • Energy security involves ensuring stable electricity and heat supplies amid shifting global dynamics, including China’s evolving role and US unpredictability.
  • Food security involves addressing weaknesses exposed by the blockade of Ukrainian grain exports, strained further by climate change. Managing farmers’ protests in Poland and France demands strategic diplomacy.
  • Technological security involves strengthening resilience against Eastern threats and vulnerabilities in critical technologies such as semiconductors. A PLN 1 billion investment in AI, including an artificial intelligence factory in Kraków, underscores this commitment.
  • Information security involves combating foreign interference, and disinformation remains a priority, with efforts to strengthen civic engagement and protect democratic processes across the EU.

Poland’s holistic approach also encompasses economic, health, and civil security, reinforcing its leadership in addressing Europe’s challenges.

A Decade of Change

In 2011, when Poland last held the EU presidency, improving EU-Russia relations was a key priority. Today, that goal feels unimaginable. However, even then, Poland prioritized security, reaching an agreement with President Obama to build a ballistic missile defense base in Redzikowo, near Kaliningrad. Inaugurated in November 2024, the base symbolizes Poland’s long-term strategic foresight.

After years of a rather isolationist and Euroskeptical approach, Tusk has rehabilitated Poland’s role in Europe. Strengthened alliances with Germany and France position Poland as a mediator between these powers, and Warsaw is fostering ties with the Baltics and Nordics. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski recently coordinated strategies toward Ukraine with counterparts from the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy, showcasing leadership and multilateralism.

As Poland prepares to lead the EU, it brings unique assets: a strong transatlantic alliance, a frontline perspective on Eastern Europe, and a determination to enhance the union’s resilience. Whether these six months yield lasting change depends on Warsaw's ability to navigate complex challenges, leverage strategic advantages, and unite member states around shared goals.