Political Chaos in Berlin Spells Trouble for Kyiv

Only hours after Donald Trump’s return to the White House became clear, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Lindner, causing the collapse of Berlin’s governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals.

The break between the two men was a long time coming, but in recent weeks there was hope that a Trump victory and a shared sense of responsibility would keep the coalition intact. Such was not to be the case. The final straw was Lindner’s rejection of Scholz’s demand to declare a fiscal emergency, thereby circumventing Germany’s constitutional debt brake that restricts government spending. The chancellor argued that a declaration was necessary to counter Russia’s war of aggression by funding German commitments to NATO and Ukraine. Scholz, however, knew that his finance minister, who has tied his political survival to keeping the debt brake, would reject the demand.

German politics will now likely enter a period of introspection, with political parties focused on the inevitable forthcoming election. But for Ukraine, the Berlin breakup raises tensions in a period of preexisting uncertainty. Germany may be occasionally accused of foot-dragging, but it remains Ukraine’s most important supporter in Europe.

A consensus among the mainstream German parties for backing Kyiv remains, but it has now become part of a great debate on funding the significant investment in defense and security that Germany requires. The Social Democrats and the Greens want to reform the debt break to allow for this investment and to compensate for any Trumpist reduction in US support to Ukraine. The Christian Democrats and the Liberals reject this. They argue instead for cutting social spending, a redline for the Social Democrats and the Greens. Meanwhile, Russia’s war of aggression rages on.

An early election in Germany is unlikely to give either camp a parliamentary majority to have its way. The most probable result, another “Grand Coalition” between Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, will face the same budgetary constraints and disagree on what to do about the debt break.

This does not bode well for Ukraine. Aid to the country risks becoming even more of a political football in the German election, whenever that may be. And there is no clear path to funding the substantial sums that Kyiv will need to continue fighting Russia should the second Trump administration decide to scale back US assistance.