Ukraine: Uncertainty and Anxiety, With a Glimmer of Hope
Trump’s ambiguous promises to “end the war in 24 hours” without outlining a concrete plan are concerning for Kyiv. Many Ukrainian analysts interpret this rhetoric as a possible prelude to increasing pressure on Ukraine to provide significant concessions to Russia, such as territorial compromise or abandonment of NATO aspirations. Vice-President Elect JD Vance has advocated for the acknowledgment of current territorial realities—meaning that Ukraine may need to cede control over regions currently occupied by Russia—and revisiting policies akin to the Minsk Agreements of 2014–2015, which were favorable to Russia. These are ideas that worry Ukrainian policymakers.
Kyiv is also concerned about direct contacts between the United States and Russia over Ukrainian heads. Direct engagement between the president-elect and Russian leadership would be read in Moscow as a major shift in American political support for Ukraine, further emboldening the Kremlin at a point when the military momentum of the war is on Russia’s side. This dynamic would create a situation in which Ukraine would enter any potential negotiations with Russia from a position of weakness. A cease-fire resulting from such a “bad deal” would only embolden Putin further, allowing Russia to reconstitute its forces, and after some time, again push against Ukraine, perhaps also threatening NATO member states more directly.
According to the Kyiv Independent, anonymous sources within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have indicated their apprehension. According to one source, “Trump’s return brings the risk of reduced military support, which could embolden Russia to escalate its offensive”, a worst-case scenario of US disengagement at a critical time. Some Ukrainians worry that Trump’s approach, favoring transactional alliances, might limit their access to US weapons. Facing this uncertainty, Kyiv may increasingly look to European allies to fill the potential gap left by the United States—a gap that will not be easy to fill unless Europeans purchase some weapons for Ukraine from Trump’s America.
That said, understandably, Ukraine’s official reaction to US elections is optimistic and diplomatic. In a tweet, President Zelensky expressed optimism about continuing Ukraine-US cooperation and emphasized the importance of Trump’s “peace through strength” approach.
Others in Kyiv are genuine in thinking and hoping that Trump will so deeply disturb the dynamic of the war, that Ukraine will benefit—for example in a scenario in which Putin angers and challenges Donald Trump early in his term. Our conversation partners compared this to playing roulette: the risk is high, but sometimes you do win.