Poland: Time for Europe to Grow Up

The reaction of the Polish government to the elections results is calm and predictable. Prime Minister Tusk quickly congratulated Donald Trump on his victory, emphasizing that he looks forward to “cooperation for the good of the American and Polish nations”. Foreign Minister Sikorski emphasized in his statement that Poland has good relationships with both Republicans and Democrats. Polish-American bilateral relations are indeed unlikely to change. If the United States wants Europe to stand up for its own defense, Poland is an exemplary ally, spending 4.3% of GDP this year, and planning to increase this figure to 4.7% next year.  Moreover, Warsaw purchases most of its equipment from the United States.

However, although bilateral relations will remain positive, there is plenty of unease in Warsaw among government circles and the broader strategic community. The first big question mark has to do with Donald Trump’s policy toward Ukraine. If Ukraine is forced into a bad deal—a cease fire on conditions favorable to Russia—this would immediately impact Poland’s vital security interests. Such a deal would allow Russia to reconstitute its forces, and after a period of time threaten not only Ukraine’s sovereignty, but also the security of NATO’s eastern flank—making Poland fully a front-line state. Other concerns include Trump’s relations with the EU and Poland’s European allies. A trade war with the EU would quickly impact Poland, which is deeply integrated into European supply chains. The potential deterioration of US relations with Germany or France would also have negative impact on NATO, which is key for Poland’s security. That is why the message Warsaw takes from this election outcome is widely understood to be, “Europe needs to take greater responsibility for its own security.” That sentiment is clearly seen in conversations behind closed doors and openly in the prime minister’s and foreign minister’s social media. The key question for Poland is whether it will find partners in Western Europe to meet this call—not just rhetorically, but also when it comes to concrete actions. 

Trump’s victory will also have a domestic impact, as Poland will soon enter its own presidential campaign. The political alignment between Trump and Law and Justice (PiS) can strengthen the yet-to be-named PiS candidate. President Duda, who cannot run again, will no doubt emphasize his friendship with Donald Trump. Duda is likely to use the remainder of his term in office to build on this friendship, both when it comes to shaping Trump’s thinking on foreign policy issues that are key for Poland, and for his own domestic position—including perhaps his ability to choose the candidate of the Right to succeed him.