France: Calling for More Europe. Again.

For Paris, Donald Trump’s return to the White House confirms the need to reduce security and technological dependency on the United States, and that can be done only at the European level. But Macron, who aimed to be the main European interlocutor with Trump during his first term, now faces a fundamentally changed situation on the continent that may frustrate his desire to claim the mantle of European leadership. The French president must now confront three key, short-term challenges.

First, the war in Ukraine could quickly unravel into a major crisis for European unity, a nightmare scenario for Paris. The Trump-led peace deal may divide allies and reveal the inability of Europeans to design their own continent’s security order. The idea that Europeans will have to deal with the war’s strategic, political, and economic implications with less US support is also a matter of concern. 

Second, the possibility of a trade war with the United States, driven by the new tariffs that Trump promised in his campaign, coincides with a critical moment for the French economy. Burdened by massive public debt, Paris plans painful budget cuts in 2025. This move is already complicated by a geopolitical situation that requires significant investment in defense at a time when France badly needs positive trade and economic news. Engaging in a cycle of tariff retaliation with Europe’s second-largest trade partner is a daunting prospect.

Finally, Trump’s victory could lead to a general bilateralization of the transatlantic relationship, with each capital looking for its own deal with Washington. This goes against the French vision. Weakened by his domestic situation, Macron has lost much of power on the European level. European leaders who are politically closer to Trump, such as Victor Orbán or Giorgia Meloni, are likely to be strengthened by the results and advocate in Brussels for policies that steer the bloc in another direction.

Macron, however, is one of the continent’s few leaders who can claim to have a personal relationship with Trump, and the French president will try to leverage this to place himself at the center of the European game. On policy, Macron will double down on the same message that he has been sending for the past seven years: Europe can and must become a strong and united geopolitical actor.