A Prepared Union

A landmark report by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, published on October 30, offers recommendations for strengthening European military and civil preparedness in response to a rapidly worsening geopolitical and security landscape. The study, requested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last March, will inform the Commission's forthcoming Preparedness Union Strategy and a white paper on the future of European defense.

Niinistö’s report highlights two critical gaps in EU preparedness. The first is the absence of an EU-level action plan to address potential armed aggression against member states. The second is the lack of full operational capacity to coordinate and mobilize EU resources effectively in response to a major shock or crisis.

To address the gaps, the report advocates adopting an “all-hazards, whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach to [the EU’s] civilian and military preparedness and readiness”. This strategy mirrors, in part, Finland’s comprehensive security model and emphasizes the need to foster trust, a prerequisite for a whole-of-society approach. In practice, it will entail pooling member-state resources and sharing information.

The 165-page document recommends several, long-overdue measures to improve EU-wide preparedness. It calls on the bloc to draft a comprehensive risk assessment, establish an EU-NATO emergency protocol that can be activated in case of a crisis, develop a comprehensive stockpiling strategy, take steps toward a full-fledged service for intelligence cooperation, and create investment mechanisms to fund preparedness efforts.

While implementation will ultimately depend on the member states, the report warns against limiting the level of preparedness to the lowest common denominator, noting that “it will not be enough.” It also recognizes that member states prioritize threats differently and, therefore, avoids ranking them. Instead, the study calls for identifying, at the EU level, critical societal and governmental functions that must be maintained in member states throughout a crisis.

The report comes just a week before the US presidential election, a timing undoubtedly intended to signal Europe’s commitment to assume its share of defense responsibilities. Notably, it recommends that “at least 20% of the overall EU budget contributes to the EU’s security and crisis preparedness”. 

Although the recommendations are not intended to dramatically alter the existing security architecture, the report represents a crucial step toward EU “single security”. Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty established the legal and moral obligations for member states to assist one another during crises, but not an attitude that embraces security as a shared responsibility. Niinistö is looking to change that.