America Votes 2024

Public Opinion: The US Election One Week Out

Bruce Stokes
What do Americans think about their forthcoming presidential election and how might their foreign policy views affect their views of the candidates? Visiting Senior Fellow Bruce Stokes looks at recent public opinion polling in the United States and highlights the interesting findings.

This is the final update before election day.

The New York Times finds a tied national race for president, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris supported by 48% of likely voters. (Source: New York Times).

    The Times’ survey is comparable to the findings of other major national polls of likely voters, whose results are well within the margin of error. (Source: New York Times).

    Polling on presidential elections has overestimated the national vote for the Democratic candidate in 12 of the 18 races since 1952. (Source: Pew Research Center).

    In the battleground states, where the results will determine the election’s outcome, the race is tied. If the polls are undercounting the Democratic vote, as they did in the 2022 congressional election, Harris would win. If they are overestimating the Democratic vote, as they did in 2020, Trump would win. (Source: Bruce Mehlman).

    Many Americans believe that the outcome of the presidential race will not be known on election night. A third of Democrats expect it will take a week for the results to be known. A quarter of independents think that it may take two weeks. (Source: Ipsos).

    One reason the election outcome may be delayed is the number of court challenges to election laws and procedures. As of September there were 119 such challenges filed, 78 by Republicans. (Source: Bloomberg).

    Seven in ten voters think that Kamala Harris will accept the results of the election if Donald Trump wins. A similar share of voters do not think Trump will accept the results if Harris wins. (Source: Pew Research).

    Sharp divide in voters’ views of whether Harris and Trump will concede if they lose the election

    The potential for violence is ever present: Nearly three in 10 Republicans say violence may be needed to save the country. (Source: PRRI).