In Georgia, the Future of Democracy is On The Ballot

Georgians go to the polls on October 26 to determine if the Georgian Dream (GD) party's 12-year hold on power will continue. But given GD’s increasingly anti-Western stances, the vote actually serves as a referendum on Georgia's democracy.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, GD founder and de facto chief, has declared in recent months his desire to establish a "truly sovereign Georgia", which, in his definition, means a country free from Western influence. He has accused Western-funded organizations of attempting to incite revolution and has promoted a conspiracy theory that sees a “Global War Party” opening a second front of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Georgia. His party has cracked down domestically on civil rights, violently repressing protests earlier this year against proposed Russian-style anti-LGBTQ+ and “foreign agent” laws that critics claim stifle civil society. 

Ivanishvili bet that these movements would lose momentum before the elections. But the conspiracy theory and quashing of demonstrations failed to sway the public. So GD shifted to making ambitious promises including boosting employment and wages, attracting more foreign investment, and reducing poverty. The party, however, did not clarify how it would achieve any of this.

But it did announce a second impeachment attempt against President Salome Zourabichvili, whom GD supported in the past. She fell out of favor with the party, however, and the animosity grew as she stepped forward as a unifying figure with her proposed "Georgian Charter", a document that outlines a path to reversing the country’s current anti-European trajectory and implementing essential reforms. The signatories, who include leaders of the major opposition parties, commit to repealing laws that conflict with European integration, including the foreign agents' law and amendments to the election code. The signatories also pledge to deliver these reforms by spring 2025 and are calling for renewed free and fair elections thereafter.

Many of Georgia’s international partners have condemned GD’s authoritarian turn. Washington is reviewing its policy toward the country after imposing travel bans and sanctions on members of the government in Tbilisi. The EU, for its part, has ceased high-level contact due to anti-Western rhetoric and has frozen Georgia’s accession process only months after the country became a candidate for membership in the bloc. On October 9, the European Parliament also weighed in, adopting a resolution that calls for EU sanctions on actors undermining Georgia's democracy, including Ivanishvili.

An Authoritarian Turn? 

GD’s anti-democratic positions are set to harden. The party, which already carries significant sway over the media and judiciary, has announced plans to eliminate the opposition after the elections. It will have the power to do so if it gains a constitutional majority, and such an authoritarian move could mark a point of no return for relations with the West. 

Beyond its domestic autocratic aspirations, GD’s platform hints at a foreign policy move away from the West. It proposes a "pragmatic approach toward Russia" and a deeper partnership with China. The danger of Georgia’s falling under greater authoritarian influence, especially from the Kremlin, is significant. For the United States and Europe, this would herald the loss an important ally in a turbulent region.

But the path forward will be difficult even if the opposition manages to secure a post-election majority. Although united in wanting to unseat GD and integrate Georgia into the EU, the opposition is divided into coalitions with differing visions. Cooperation is a struggle.
 
A Watchful Eye
 
A recent poll of Georgian voters indicates that 32% of respondents support GD, while 20% back the largest opposition party, the United National Movement. At least three other opposition parties are projected to surpass the threshold to enter parliament. This would make it unlikely for GD to achieve a simple majority.

But the primary concern is whether the elections will take place under free and fair conditions. Opposition and civil society groups have already raised alarm about alleged GD misuse of public resources in its campaign and government control of the media, both of which could skew election results.

GD has been reluctant to concede in the past. It withdrew in 2020 from an EU-brokered deal that outlined power sharing in parliament with the opposition. That, combined with its repression of public protests, suggests that the party could contest any outcome in which it falls short of victory.

Georgia’s Western partners will need to closely monitor the elections, ensuring their free and fair conduct. Maximizing international visibility is crucial for protecting electoral integrity. The partners should also prepare to support the Georgian people if protests arise from election irregularities, in part through diplomatic pressure to prevent repression and a stolen election. A clear opposition win, however, will also require Western vigilance to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Georgia’s democracy and its relationship with the West hang in the balance.