What would a failed EU referendum mean for Moldova?

This article first appeared in Emerging Europe

On October 20, the same day that Moldovans vote in a presidential election, the country will also hold a referendum on EU membership. The question, ‘Do you agree with Moldova joining the European Union?’ is simple, but the consequences of a ‘no’ vote are not.

Indeed, if the referendum fails, Moldova risks falling into a trap similar to that of Georgia. A ‘no’ vote would jeopardise its status as an EU candidate country, granted in March 2022, by blocking European assistance and halting the accession negotiations that started in June 2023.

The failure of the referendum would also undermine constitutional commitments and create a perception of indecision among both Moldovan citizens and the country’s international partners.

In the absence of a clear and irreversible integration strategy, Moldova could face declining support from the European Union, and domestic reforms, particularly in the field of justice could be jeopardised.

This failure could increase external influence, especially from the Russian Federation, which would take advantage of the situation to extend its control over Moldovan politics. In this context, it would become increasingly difficult for Chișinău to convince EU member states that Moldova is a truly European state.

Should this democratic exercise fail, it would have serious consequences on several levels—political, economic, and social, with long-term effects on the country’s future. A failure of the EU referendum would mark a critical moment in the history of the Republic of Moldova, jeopardising not only its European course but also the country’s stability and hard-won development opportunities.

Political instability and polarisation

Politically, the negative outcome of the referendum could lead to a major shift in the country’s strategic orientation.

Political forces promoting pro-European policies would lose legitimacy and popular support, opening the door for parties or political leaders advocating a reorientation toward the East, especially the Russian Federation.

This scenario would significantly increase the risk of Russian-inspired laws, such as the ‘foreign agents law’ law promoted in other states once occupied by the Soviet Union, such as Georgia.

The implementation of such measures could drastically restrict the work of civil society, independent media, and international organisations, eroding democracy and fundamental freedoms in our country.

If the referendum fails, there could also be a risk of prolonged political stagnation. Pro-European and pro-Russian forces would come into even sharper conflict, further dividing society.

This polarisation would create political instability, and future governments might focus more on managing internal crises than on implementing the reforms needed to keep Moldova on the European path.

Thus, political instability could indefinitely delay any progress in negotiations with the European Union, similar to the situation in Serbia, whose accession process has been stalled for more than 12 years, largely due to Russian influence and the lack of a clear internal consensus on the European direction.

Economic, energy, and security vulnerability

On the economic front, a failed referendum would have significant consequences, as the European Union is Moldova’s main economic and trade partner, with over 70 per cent of Moldovan exports currently absorbed by the EU market.

The loss of European support would mean a decrease in investments, both direct and through European funds, aimed at modernising infrastructure and supporting economic development. EU membership would provide access to the Union’s internal market, as well as cohesion and regional development funds, which would transform Moldova’s economy in the long term.

However, a failed referendum would delay these benefits, leaving the country in economic stagnation.

Moreover, Moldova would become even more vulnerable to Russia’s energy blackmail. Dependent on gas and energy imports from the Russian Federation, Chișinău would face the risk of steep price hikes and possible supply disruptions. Moldova could also become more economically isolated, as Russia has demonstrated over the years that it uses energy resources as a tool of political pressure.

National security is another key issue. The European Union offers not only economic stability but also an anchor for regional security. Moldova, as a neutral state, is not a member of NATO, which means that its security depends largely on the geopolitical context. Joining the EU would provide Moldova with a framework for security and defense cooperation, allowing the country to benefit from support through the Security and Defence Partnership with the EU, signed on May 21, in the face of external threats.

Without a clear path toward European integration, Moldova risks remaining vulnerable to destabilising Russian influences, which could exploit any weaknesses in the state through hybrid warfare tactics. This is precisely why it is necessary for our country to join forces with Ukraine, which is defending us from Russian aggression.

Demoralising citizens

From a social point of view, a failure of the referendum could negatively impact the morale of the population and diminish people’s confidence in the country’s future. European integration is seen by many Moldovans as a chance to overcome poverty, corruption, and political instability.

A negative outcome could lead to increased migration, especially among young people, who would no longer see a secure and prosperous future in Moldova. This would further exacerbate the country’s demographic problem, which is already affected by a massive exodus of labor to EU countries. In the long term, this could undermine the country’s ability to develop and maintain internal stability.

Another social effect would be to make the population more vulnerable to Russian propaganda and disinformation. A failed referendum could amplify Eurosceptic and pro-Russian discourse, negatively affecting public perception of the European Union.

Time to consolidate Moldova’s commitment to Europe

The failure of the referendum on EU accession would represent a step backward for the Republic of Moldova and jeopardise its European future. Without overwhelming support from citizens, the European path could be threatened by external influences, putting Moldova at risk of falling into a deep political and economic crisis.

It is important to strengthen the commitment to EU membership in the Constitution so that this objective cannot be altered by future governments, even in the event of unfavourable political developments.

Only by consolidating this European commitment at both the political and constitutional levels can Moldova ensure a stable and prosperous future within the European Union and expedite the accession process.

For this to happen, Romania must continue to be the most fervent advocate of the Republic of Moldova’s European path.