The Far Right is Out—So Far

The new European Parliament (EP) met on July 16, its first convening since an election saw the bloc shift markedly to the right. The legislature will now help steer the EU’s fortunes for the next half-decade. But despite the changes, there was little immediate impact on parliamentary business. The parliament’s weakened but remaining centrist majority reelected centrist-conservative Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission president and Roberta Metsola as EP president while excluding two new far-right groups, the Patriots for Europe and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), from power. The moves, however, may not set a precedent for the next five years.

A Fractured Far Right 

Though far-right parties increased their representation in the EP, chronic disunity prevented them from exploiting their collective might. Not even the lure of power could get them to coalesce. Instead, they will comprise three groups in the new parliament: the preexisting European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), with its mostly radical right membership; the Patriots, the renamed radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group that has opened itself to non-far-right euroskeptic allies; and the Alternative for Germany (AfD)-led ESN that, following AfD’s expulsion from ID, has gathered smaller extreme and radical right forces.

The divisions not only hamper the ability to exert influence. They reflect widely divergent policy positions on, for example, Russia and the war in Ukraine. They are also indicative of different strategic calculations. The ID’s expulsion of the AfD and the Patriots’ barring of all extremist forces was clearly intended by the group’s key players to detoxify their public image, appear more moderate, especially compared to the ESN, and overcome their previous exclusion from top EP positions. Meanwhile, the ECR chose to remain separate and continue to profit from the existence of the more radical groups. 

The EP’s first week showed the impact and the limits of such cosmetics. The ECR gained two vice-presidents and a quaestor in the new EP’s Bureau, which lays down parliamentary rules. The Patriots and the ESN got nothing. The cordon sanitaire that for decades blocked far-right parties from real influence in Brussels has largely held for now, but it is unclear if that will be the case much longer.

The allocation of parliamentary committee chair positions held to the redline only to the extent that the election of the Bureau did. Most influential positions have so far gone to centrists and Greens, but the ECR managed to secure the chairs and vice-chairs of several committees. This means that the ideological reflexes of non-far-right political groups persist, but a creeping process of normalizing parts of the far right is underway.

Looking Right

Whether the far-right can exert more influence in the future depends partly on its desire and ability to bridge its divisions. The power of von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP), however, may play a greater role. 

As the clear winner of the recent election, the EPP has the most political gravitas, the largest representation, and the most influential positions in parliament, all of which will help it push through its agenda. But the EPP is also feeling the most heat from a resurgent far right, the parliamentary groups most closely aligned ideologically and the ones to which the party may need to turn for support.

The EPP, in waging several key policy battles, such as those on the EU’s Green Deal and its impact on agriculture, will need to overcome opposition not only from the left but also from the populist sirens of many far-right parties that try to appeal to the center-right electorate. This means that the EPP, on issues ranging from immigration to industrial policy, and from social rights to trade protectionism, will face intense competition from its own right, too, which could well increase the pressure, or appetite, to co-opt parts of the far right’s agenda. That would serve to further normalize the far right and their platform.

This weakening the anti-far-right firewall is already reflected in the EPP’s own divisions. Some party members now cooperate with the far right on the national or local level while other center-right parties, such as the Republicans in France, have been bitterly divided over such collaboration. These fissures already weigh on the EPP’s leadership calculus, which must navigate between a far right it has traditionally shunned and political realities that pressure it to do otherwise. 

The seeds of a rapprochement have already been planted. The question is whether they will be allowed to grow. If they are, it may well be in the EP. That would affect not only the EU’s future policy direction but also lay the foundation for a new normal in European politics.