Deeds, Not Words

Domestically, he gained a bullish reputation for having rammed a pension reform through without a parliamentary vote while fending off significant opposition. In foreign policy, his incessant insistence that Europe should aim for strategic autonomy, which many perceive as a French attempt at sidelining the United States, has caused repeated consternation among allies. Internationally, however, France’s limited power has forced the president to adopt a different strategy and change his tone. While welcome, this rhetorical shift should not be seen as a compromise on his European ambitions. Macron’s core principles are clear and fixed. His partners should engage with him accordingly, and focus on his foreign policy actions rather than on his occasional attention-grabbing comments.

Wounded Domestically but Undeterred

The circumstances surrounding Macron's reelection were quickly used by the opposition to challenge his legitimacy at home. Many voters opted for the incumbent not because they supported his policies but to safeguard national security and the rule of law in the context of the war in Ukraine and the far right’s incremental rise. Marine Le Pen’s alleged proximity to the Kremlin was also used by the incumbent to question her intentions, likely convincing even more people to oppose her. Macron, recognizing this, conceded that he would need to be more inclusive in his second term and acknowledge the diverse electorate that made his victory possible by consulting opposition parties and civil society more often. But following his unpopular maneuver to bypass parliament to implement a pension reform, his promise now rings hollow to many. The far right and far left, in particular, have voted together on a number of occasions to bring down the government through regular votes of no confidence, one of which lacked the support of only nine MPs to succeed.

For a president who has always assumed the “verticality of power”, a phrase Macron has used to oppose deliberation and inaction, his weakened domestic position and lack of a clear majority in the National Assembly could have been profoundly humbling. Instead, Macron has doubled down on previous campaign promises and announced three additional areas of reform, some of which could be equally controversial. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will lead the effort to develop policy proposals on better-paying jobs and full employment, progress and climate change, and law and order and migration. Policy on this last item may be particularly difficult to get through parliament because of its charged nature and may require Macron to keep his word, consult the opposition, and form a coalition with the conservative Les Républicains, confirming a rightward turn that began during his first term. Such a move would mirror the adjustments Macron is already making to advance his foreign policy objectives.

A New Strategy Abroad

Macron initially pursued his international objectives with the same vehemence but found that the power he enjoys domestically is not easily replicated on the world stage. For six years, he spearheaded European strategic autonomy, helping it evolve from an obscure concept to which most Europeans were overtly hostile to a hot topic that France’s allies cannot ignore. But despite success in certain key areas, such as the global taxation reform, which he played a major role in negotiating within the G20, Macron has achieved only limited successes advancing his vision for European defense. Defense budgets are skyrocketing, but many allies continue to buy off-the-shelf from foreign suppliers instead of investing in the long-term development of European industries. Germany’s recent national security strategy, for example, states that the Bundeswehr will seek to procure “primarily European solutions” but only “if this can be achieved without losing capabilities”.

With the clock ticking, Macron knows he must move quickly if he is to advance his foreign and defense policy agendas.

France alone simply does not have the clout to make European strategic autonomy a reality. So German ambivalence and a desire to gain influence in the former Soviet bloc of EU member states are leading Macron to diversify France’s partners. In an address at this year’s GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum, the president addressed a Central and Eastern European crowd in an uncharacteristically nuanced speech, emphasizing European credibility over strategic autonomy. He also took the time to humble himself, noting that France had “sometimes missed opportunities to listen”, a reference to President Jacques Chirac’s offhanded comment that Eastern Europeans “had missed an opportunity to keep quiet” in their support of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.

Macron’s rhetorical shift reflects a new-found understanding of the concerns Eastern Europeans have expressed about European strategic autonomy. It also suggests Macron is aware that the next few years will likely make or break his vision of European defense, not least because his tenure will end in 2027. With the clock ticking, Macron knows he must move quickly if he is to advance his foreign and defense policy agendas. That process already began at a June 19 meeting of European defense ministers in Paris at which he announced an ad hoc procurement program of Mistral missiles with several European countries, including Estonia, Hungary, Belgium, and Cyprus. It will continue next month with a state visit to Germany, the first by a French president in 23 years, during which Macron will seek to align Berlin and Paris on key security issues, including European enlargement, the war in Ukraine, and European defense, ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius. Though partners should expect Macron to continue lobbying in favor of strategic autonomy, they should also note his demands for ambitious security guarantees for Ukraine and a stronger European pillar within NATO, both of which reflect his alignment with broader transatlantic security objectives.

New Tone, Same Goals

His tone may have evolved, but Macron’s governance approach, often referred to as the "Macron method", will continue to shape French domestic and foreign affairs. His comments may occasionally cause great concern, but they must be considered in a broader context that clashes with the reality of French foreign and defense policy. His recent, controversial remarks on Taiwan, for example, which were perceived as suggesting a soft approach to Beijing, were made as a French frigate transited the Taiwan Strait, reflecting no change in long-term foreign policy. Paris’ European partners should, therefore, take more seriously Macron’s long-standing push for a European defense, in part through the development of European deep-strike capabilities. At the same time, allies should also expect Macron to continue to pursue shared goals. His outreach to key non-Western countries, such as India, to gain their support for isolating Russia and creating the conditions for negotiating a fair and lasting peace for Ukraine is one objective his transatlantic partners are more likely to welcome.

Macron has adopted a new tone that offers hope for more effective European collaboration, but he did so only to promote his ultimate, and unchanged, foreign policy goals. His partners should remember to pay more heed to that than an occasional statement designed to bolster his domestic standing.